Jaguars @ Colts: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Indianapolis Colts · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

JAX 47%

53% IND

Spread

IND -1.5

Total

46.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

JAX by 5.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowIND -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 1.5-point home favorite against JAX, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.5 against an average line of 2; 49.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & spread	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5
Close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Close	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	ATL vs TB 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	36–30	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-2	1-1

Venue/role: JAX away, as underdog; IND home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Jacksonville Jaguars

No more games this season.

Indianapolis Colts

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

JAX 22–27 IND IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 17	JAX -4.5	JAX W
Dec 7 2025	Indianapolis Colts 19 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 36	IND -2.5	JAX W
Jan 5 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 26	IND -3.5	JAX W
Oct 6 2024	Indianapolis Colts 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	IND W
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

JAX

Longer bar = better

IND

Offense

◀ JAX better

#20

#14

Defense

◀ JAX better

#25

+0.8 #4

Turnovers

◀ JAX better

−1.3 #32

60 plays #23

Pace

IND faster ▶

67 plays #6

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	27.3 #27	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.97 #28	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.07 #26	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	44% #19	JAX

When IND has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.82 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	42% #19	43% #13	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.