Bears @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Minnesota Vikings · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

CHI 45%

55% MIN

Spread

MIN -1.5

Total

43.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

CHI by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowMIN -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentMIN -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like MIN as a 1.5-point home favorite against CHI, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.9 against an average line of 2.1; 44.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	HOU vs DEN 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	15–18	L	U41.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	SEA vs LAR 2025 · Postseason · close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	31–27	W	O45.5
Close	DEN vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	33–30	W	O45.5
Close	LAC vs HOU 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	16–20	L	U40.5
Close	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Close	GB vs PHI 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	7–10	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	1-0
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-1

Venue/role: CHI away, as underdog; MIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago Bears

No more games this season.

Minnesota Vikings

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

CHI 26–29 MIN MIN leads · 55 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2026	Minnesota Vikings 9 @ Chicago Bears 3	CHI -4.5	MIN W
Nov 16 2025	Chicago Bears 19 @ Minnesota Vikings 17	MIN -3	CHI W
Sep 8 2025	Minnesota Vikings 27 @ Chicago Bears 24	CHI -1.5	MIN W
Dec 16 2024	Chicago Bears 12 @ Minnesota Vikings 30	MIN -6.5	MIN W
Nov 24 2024	Minnesota Vikings 30 @ Chicago Bears 27	MIN -2.5	MIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

CHI

Longer bar = better

MIN

#11

Offense

◀ CHI better

#27

#17

Defense

MIN better ▶

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #1

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	CHI off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	5.42 #15	4.62 #2	MIN
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	47% #10	33% #1	MIN

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	MIN off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	20.4 #8	CHI
Yards / play	4.61 #27	6.25 #32	MIN
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	0.00 #19	CHI
Success rate	36% #32	42% #8	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.