Dolphins @ Patriots: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at New England Patriots · Division game

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

MIA 17%

83% NE

Spread

NE -10.5

Total

42.5

model 43

Spread edge

NE by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -10.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -10.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8.5–12.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 50% (64 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -10.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 10.5-point home favorite against MIA, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 86%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12.4 against an average line of 10.2; 39 points a game (usually 46.8). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DEN vs LV 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-9.5	10–7	L	U41.5
Very close	LAC vs LV 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-9.5	31–14	W	O40.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Very close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5
Very close	ATL vs NYG 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	34–7	W	U43.5
Close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & total	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Close	BAL vs TEN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & total	-11.5	24–18	L	O41.5
Close	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & spread	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Close	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Close	TB vs CAR 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-9.5	48–14	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-2	2-3
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MIA away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Miami Dolphins

No more games this season.

New England Patriots

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIA 25–29 NE NE leads · 54 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Miami Dolphins 10 @ New England Patriots 38	NE -14.5	NE W
Sep 14 2025	New England Patriots 33 @ Miami Dolphins 27	MIA -2.5	NE W
Nov 24 2024	New England Patriots 15 @ Miami Dolphins 34	MIA -7.5	MIA W
Oct 6 2024	Miami Dolphins 15 @ New England Patriots 10	MIA -2.5	MIA W
Oct 29 2023	New England Patriots 17 @ Miami Dolphins 31	MIA -7.5	MIA W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

MIA

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

NE better ▶

#11

#26

Defense

NE better ▶

#16

−0.8 #28

Turnovers

Even

−1.0 #30

55 plays #31

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	MIA off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.36 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	+0.02 #20	NE
Success rate	38% #29	44% #20	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	26.4 #24	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.50 #21	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	+0.11 #29	NE
Success rate	45% #12	49% #30	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIA scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

NE scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.