Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at New York Giants · Division game
2-4 · Power #24
23
projected
@
3-2-1 · Power #22
20
projected
PHI 59%
41% NYG
Spread
PHI -3
 
Total
41.5
model 42.5
Spread edge
NYG by 4
lean · context
Pick this game
Your picksMy picks ›
Spread
Total
Winner
ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET
SourceESPN odds feed
Opennot available
CurrentPHI -3
Total41.5
Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET
Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current
Spread
Opening line not available
Total
 
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ
ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET
SourceESPN odds feed
Opennot available
CurrentPHI -3
Total41.5
Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET
Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 3-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games
Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
7 of 978%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 2.9; 41.4 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games
MatchGameLineFinalCoveredO/U
Very close
2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation
-2.534–10 W O41.5
Very close
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread
-2.516–13 W U41.5
Very close
2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest
-320–17 P U42.5
Very close
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread
-3.524–17 W U42.5
Close
2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread
-2.525–10 W U37.5
Close
2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form
-2.524–27 L O38.5
Close
2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread
-2.525–24 L O41.5
Close
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total
-323–17 W U42.5
Close
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread
-3.532–25 W O41.5
Close
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total
-3.528–3 W U42.5
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Philadelphia Eagles 59%
Projected PHI 23 – NYG 20 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest
Model line
NYG -1
Market PHI -3
Against the spread
Lean NYG +3
3.8-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)
Total
No lean
Model 42.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from NYG’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadNYG rating edge+0.3+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−1.3=Model marginNYG by 0.8
TotalScoring ratings42.5=Model total42.5

Signals

The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate New York Giants ATS trend
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Philadelphia Eagles 0-3 ATS as a favorite
Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)
New York Giants 3-1 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24
NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

PHI
Longer bar = better
NYG
#30
Offense
NYG better ▶
#19
#21
Defense
Even
#21
−0.3 #20
Turnovers
Even
−0.3 #21
58 plays #28
Pace
NYG faster ▶
66 plays #8
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When PHI has the ball
Advantage: NYG defense
PHI offNYG defEdge
Points / game 17.7 #29 23.3 #19 NYG
Yards / play 4.38 #32 5.43 #20 NYG
EPA / play −0.13 #30 +0.02 #21 NYG
Success rate 36% #30 44% #22 NYG
When NYG has the ball
Even matchup
NYG offPHI defEdge
Points / game 22.7 #19 22.8 #16 Even
Yards / play 5.03 #20 5.38 #17 Even
EPA / play −0.02 #18 +0.08 #27 NYG
Success rate 42% #18 45% #25 NYG

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
PHI scoring against the NYG defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
PHI scored
0.5
#32
12.2
#2
12.7
#11
1.0
#32
4.0
#30
5.0
#32
NYG allowed
4.5
#15
5.5
#9
10.0
#11
7.5
#28
5.8
#8
13.3
#23
NYG scoring against the PHI defense
Q1Q21HQ3Q42H
NYG scored
3.8
#20
5.8
#21
9.7
#20
5.2
#13
7.8
#13
13.0
#9
PHI allowed
5.0
#17
4.3
#6
9.3
#9
3.8
#9
9.7
#31
13.5
#26

Game conditions

Before kickoff
Home field
NYG +1.8
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
PHI6d
NYG6d
Even
Tempo
Average 125 plays
slowavg 125fast

News & sentiment

ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.