Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at New York Giants · Division game
PHI 59%41% NYG
Spread
PHI -3
Total
41.5
model 42.5
Spread edge
NYG by 4
lean · context
Pick this game
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Spread
Total
Winner
ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET
SourceESPN odds feed
Opennot available
CurrentPHI -3
Total41.5
Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET
Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
Open—
no open
NowPHI -3
Opening line not available
Total
Open—
no open
Now41.5
Line context
Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ
ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET
SourceESPN odds feed
Opennot available
CurrentPHI -3
Total41.5
Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET
Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like
PHI as a 3-point road favorite at NYG, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.
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Favorite won
9 of 1090%
Normal range · usually 62%
Favorite covered
7 of 978%
Normal range · usually 51%
Went over
4 of 1040%
Normal range · usually 48%
Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.8 against an average line of 2.9; 41.4 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Very close |
2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & situation |
-2.5 | 34–10 | W | O41.5 |
| Very close |
2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 16–13 | W | U41.5 |
| Very close |
2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest |
-3 | 20–17 | P | U42.5 |
| Very close |
2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar rest & spread |
-3.5 | 24–17 | W | U42.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & spread |
-2.5 | 25–10 | W | U37.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form |
-2.5 | 24–27 | L | O38.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 13 · close · similar total & spread |
-2.5 | 25–24 | L | O41.5 |
| Close |
2026 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total |
-3 | 23–17 | W | U42.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread |
-3.5 | 32–25 | W | O41.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & total |
-3.5 | 28–3 | W | U42.5 |
History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Philadelphia Eagles 59%
Projected PHI 23 – NYG 20 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest
Model line
NYG -1
Market PHI -3
Against the spread
Lean NYG +3
3.8-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)
Total
No lean
Model 42.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from NYG’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadNYG rating edge+0.3+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap−1.3=Model marginNYG by 0.8
TotalScoring ratings42.5=Model total42.5
Signals
The data signal, and 2 trends and market moves behind it
Moderate New York Giants ATS trend
Moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
No clear signal on the total
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Philadelphia Eagles 0-3 ATS as a favorite
Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)
New York Giants 3-1 ATS at home
Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% | |
| 5-4-1 56% | 6-4 60% | 7-3 70% |
Next 3 games
With how the last meeting with each opponent went
No more games this season.
No more games this season.
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
PHI 38–20 NYG
PHI leads · 58 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 26 2025 | New York Giants 20 @ Philadelphia Eagles 38 | PHI -7.5 | PHI W |
| Oct 9 2025 | Philadelphia Eagles 17 @ New York Giants 34 | PHI -7.5 | NYG W |
| Jan 5 2024 | New York Giants 13 @ Philadelphia Eagles 20 | PHI -2.5 | PHI W |
| Oct 20 2024 | Philadelphia Eagles 28 @ New York Giants 3 | PHI -3.5 | PHI W |
| Jan 7 2023 | Philadelphia Eagles 10 @ New York Giants 27 | PHI -5 | NYG W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24
NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17
Longer bar = better
#30
Offense
NYG better ▶#19
#21
Defense
Even#21
−0.3 #20
Turnovers
Even−0.3 #21
58 plays #28
Pace
NYG faster ▶66 plays #8
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
| PHI off | NYG def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.7 #29 | 23.3 #19 | NYG |
| Yards / play | 4.38 #32 | 5.43 #20 | NYG |
| EPA / play | −0.13 #30 | +0.02 #21 | NYG |
| Success rate | 36% #30 | 44% #22 | NYG |
| NYG off | PHI def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.7 #19 | 22.8 #16 | Even |
| Yards / play | 5.03 #20 | 5.38 #17 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.02 #18 | +0.08 #27 | NYG |
| Success rate | 42% #18 | 45% #25 | NYG |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
PHI scoring against the NYG defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0.5 #32 | 12.2 #2 | 12.7 #11 | 1.0 #32 | 4.0 #30 | 5.0 #32 | |
4.5 #15 | 5.5 #9 | 10.0 #11 | 7.5 #28 | 5.8 #8 | 13.3 #23 |
NYG scoring against the PHI defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
3.8 #20 | 5.8 #21 | 9.7 #20 | 5.2 #13 | 7.8 #13 | 13.0 #9 | |
5.0 #17 | 4.3 #6 | 9.3 #9 | 3.8 #9 | 9.7 #31 | 13.5 #26 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
home-field points in the model
Weather
Not yet
Forecast 15 days before kickoff
Rest
PHI6d
NYG6d
Even
Tempo
Average 125 plays
slowavg 125fast
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week

