49ers @ Cardinals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Arizona Cardinals · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

SF 78%

22% ARI

Spread

SF -8.5

Total

44.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

ARI by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -8.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSF -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–10.5 since 2023: won 75%, covered 41% (68 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -8.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as an 8.5-point road favorite at ARI, the favorite won 7, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7 against an average line of 8.1; 44.2 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ ARI 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	31–24	L	O45
Very close	LAR @ CAR 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-10	28–31	L	O44.5
Very close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Very close	PHI @ DAL 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & situation	-7.5	34–6	W	U44.5
Very close	KC @ LV 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & rest	-8.5	27–20	L	O42.5
Very close	KC @ LV 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & rest	-9	31–17	W	O42.5
Very close	BAL @ CLE 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-7.5	24–29	L	O44.5
Very close	SEA @ ATL 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & rest	-7	37–9	W	O44.5
Very close	KC @ DEN 2023 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & total	-7	9–24	L	U45.5
Close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-2
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	0-2	3-2

Venue/role: SF away, as favorite; ARI home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Francisco 49ers

No more games this season.

Arizona Cardinals

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

SF 29–22 ARI SF leads · 51 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 27 2026	Arizona Cardinals 30 @ San Francisco 49ers 36	SF -7.5	ARI W
Nov 16 2025	San Francisco 49ers 41 @ Arizona Cardinals 22	SF -3.5	SF W
Sep 21 2025	Arizona Cardinals 15 @ San Francisco 49ers 16	SF -1.5	ARI W
Jan 5 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Arizona Cardinals 47	ARI -4.5	ARI W
Oct 6 2024	Arizona Cardinals 24 @ San Francisco 49ers 23	SF -7.5	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

ARI

Offense

◀ SF better

#20

Defense

◀ SF better

#29

+0.2 #16

Turnovers

Even

+0.3 #13

57 plays #29

Pace

ARI faster ▶

67 plays #4

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	29.7 #32	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	6.01 #30	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.08 #28	SF
Success rate	53% #1	45% #24	SF

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	ARI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	4.56 #28	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	46% #11	43% #16	ARI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

ARI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.