Eagles @ 49ers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 17 · at San Francisco 49ers

Philadelphia Eagles

2-4 · Power #24

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

PHI 42%

58% SF

Spread

SF -1.5

Total

45.5

model 44

Spread edge

SF by 6.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSF -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSF -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 1.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 3 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6 against an average line of 3.1; 41.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SF vs DEN 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar season form	-3	24–14	W	U48.5
Loose	WSH vs CLE 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar season form & situation	-3.5	34–13	W	O43.5
Loose	BAL vs CIN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	34–20	W	O46.5
Loose	GB vs MIA 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar situation & season form	-3.5	30–17	W	U47.5
Loose	JAX vs HOU 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar spread & season form	-1.5	17–10	W	U42.5
Loose	LAR vs PIT 2023 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	17–24	L	U43.5
Loose	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · loose · similar situation & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Loose	MIN vs CHI 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-3	10–12	L	U43
Loose	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · loose · similar total & situation	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Loose	PIT vs DAL 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PHI LLWWL	2-4	33%	0-2	2-1
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	2-2

Venue/role: PHI away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PHI OUOUU	3-3	50%	2-4
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PHI	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Philadelphia Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ NYG	W38–20WO

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ ARI	W36–30LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

PHI 9–7 SF PHI leads · 16 games since 2001 · SF has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 11 2025	San Francisco 49ers 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 19	PHI -5.5	SF W
Dec 3 2023	San Francisco 49ers 42 @ Philadelphia Eagles 19	SF -3	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PHI

Longer bar = better

#30

Offense

SF better ▶

#21

Defense

SF better ▶

−0.3 #20

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.2 #16

58 plays #28

Pace

Even

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	PHI off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #29	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	4.38 #32	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.13 #30	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	36% #30	43% #16	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	22.8 #16	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	5.38 #17	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.08 #27	SF
Success rate	53% #1	45% #25	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PHI scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.5 #32	12.2 #2	12.7 #11	1.0 #32	4.0 #30	5.0 #32
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

SF scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
PHI allowed	5.0 #17	4.3 #6	9.3 #9	3.8 #9	9.7 #31	13.5 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.