Seahawks @ Panthers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Carolina Panthers

Seattle Seahawks

3-3 · Power #1

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Carolina Panthers

3-2 · Power #13

projected

SEA 68%

32% CAR

Spread

SEA -5.5

Total

42.5

model 45.5

Spread edge

CAR by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -5.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowSEA -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentSEA -5.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SEA as a 5.5-point road favorite at CAR, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.8 against an average line of 4.8; 48.8 points a game (usually 46). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC @ GB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	19–27	L	O44
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & rest	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Very close	GB @ ARI 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-6.5	27–23	L	O44.5
Close	SF @ IND 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	48–27	W	O46.5
Close	KC @ DEN 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	19–22	L	U45.5
Close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & season form	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Close	BUF @ HOU 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	19–23	L	U44.5
Close	BAL @ JAX 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-4	23–7	W	U42.5
Close	KC @ JAX 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–31	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ TB 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-3.5	31–25	W	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SEA WLPLL	1-3-2	25%	1-2	1-3-2
CAR LWLWW	3-2	60%	1-1	1-1

Venue/role: SEA away, as favorite; CAR home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SEA UOOOU	3-3	50%	3-3
CAR OUUOU	2-3	40%	3-2

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SEA	7-3 70%	5-3-2 63%	5-5 50%
CAR	4-6 40%	6-4 60%	3-7 30%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Seattle Seahawks

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ LAR	W31–27WO

Carolina Panthers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs ATL	W34–3WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

SEA 12–5 CAR SEA leads · 17 games since 2000 · SEA has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2025	Seattle Seahawks 27 @ Carolina Panthers 10	SEA -6.5	SEA W
Sep 24 2023	Carolina Panthers 27 @ Seattle Seahawks 37	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SEA+3.2 →+4.3▲ 1.1#1

CAR−1.6 →+0.7▲ 2.3#13

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

SEA

Longer bar = better

CAR

#19

Offense

CAR better ▶

Defense

◀ SEA better

#17

−0.2 #19

Turnovers

CAR better ▶

+0.6 #9

63 plays #12

Pace

CAR faster ▶

68 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SEA has the ball

Even matchup

	SEA off	CAR def	Edge
Points / game	24.7 #13	24.6 #21	SEA
Yards / play	5.26 #17	5.38 #18	Even
EPA / play	−0.08 #24	−0.01 #17	CAR
Success rate	41% #22	42% #12	CAR

When CAR has the ball

Advantage: SEA defense

	CAR off	SEA def	Edge
Points / game	29.2 #4	20.3 #6	Even
Yards / play	5.91 #7	3.96 #1	SEA
EPA / play	+0.12 #6	−0.13 #2	Even
Success rate	44% #14	37% #2	SEA

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SEA scoring against the CAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SEA scored	4.0 #18	4.8 #25	8.8 #24	7.2 #6	8.7 #7	15.8 #4
CAR allowed	3.4 #12	10.0 #31	13.4 #26	3.4 #7	7.8 #21	11.2 #11

CAR scoring against the SEA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CAR scored	5.4 #7	9.2 #7	14.6 #5	8.6 #3	6.0 #22	14.6 #7
SEA allowed	2.8 #7	9.2 #28	12.0 #20	2.8 #3	5.0 #6	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.