Colts @ Browns: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Cleveland Browns

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Cleveland Browns

4-2 · Power #30

projected

IND 58%

42% CLE

Spread

IND -2.5

Total

43.5

model 43.5

Spread edge

CLE by 2

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowIND -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Road favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 60%, covered 51% (187 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentIND -2.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like IND as a 2.5-point road favorite at CLE, the favorite won 4, covered 2, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: underdog by 0.9 against an average line of 2.7; 44.7 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	SEA @ TEN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	20–17	P	U42.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	20–23	L	U44.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	24–36	L	O43.5
Very close	PHI @ TB 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & rest	-3	9–32	L	U43
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	28–3	W	U42.5
Very close	LAC @ GB 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	20–23	L	U44
Very close	DAL @ CAR 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	27–30	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	1-1
CLE WWWLW	4-2	67%	3-0	4-2

Venue/role: IND away, as favorite; CLE home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
CLE OUOUU	3-3	50%	4-2

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
CLE	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs JAX	L17–23LU

Cleveland Browns

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ CIN	W20–18WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

IND 8–3 CLE IND leads · 11 games since 1999 · CLE has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 22 2023	Cleveland Browns 39 @ Indianapolis Colts 38	CLE -3.5	IND W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

CLE−1.8 →−2.8▼ 1.0#30

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

IND

Longer bar = better

CLE

#20

Offense

◀ IND better

#27

#25

Defense

CLE better ▶

#10

−1.3 #32

Turnovers

CLE better ▶

0.0 #17

67 plays #6

Pace

◀ IND faster

59 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: CLE defense

	IND off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	20.3 #5	CLE
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.03 #10	CLE
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.03 #13	CLE
Success rate	42% #19	42% #10	CLE

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #28	27.3 #27	Even
Yards / play	4.53 #29	5.97 #28	Even
EPA / play	−0.09 #26	+0.07 #26	Even
Success rate	40% #26	44% #19	IND

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
CLE allowed	7.3 #32	3.2 #1	10.5 #14	3.8 #9	6.0 #9	9.8 #7

CLE scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	2.7 #27	7.8 #13	10.5 #24
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.