Steelers @ Titans: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Tennessee Titans

Pittsburgh Steelers

4-2 · Power #17

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

PIT 57%

43% TEN

Spread

PIT -1.5

Total

42.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

PIT by 4.5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPIT -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowPIT -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPIT -1.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PIT as a 1.5-point road favorite at TEN, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.5 against an average line of 2; 46.3 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC @ CLE 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–10	W	U41.5
Very close	IND @ NE 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	25–24	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Very close	LAC @ NYJ 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	27–6	W	U42
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Close	SF @ MIA 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	17–29	L	O44.5
Close	NO @ TEN 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	34–26	W	O38.5
Close	JAX @ LV 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-1.5	30–29	L	O44.5
Close	KC @ CLE 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-3.5	21–7	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
PIT LWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-1
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	1-2	3-2

Venue/role: PIT away, as favorite; TEN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
PIT UOOOO	4-2	67%	4-2
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
PIT	6-4 60%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Pittsburgh Steelers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ BAL	W26–24WO

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ HOU	L3–26LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

PIT 11–10 TEN PIT leads · 21 games since 1999 · PIT has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 2 2023	Tennessee Titans 16 @ Pittsburgh Steelers 20	PIT -3	PIT W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

PIT−0.5 →+0.2▲ 0.7#17

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

PIT

Longer bar = better

TEN

#21

Offense

◀ PIT better

#29

Defense

◀ PIT better

#17

+0.5 #10

Turnovers

◀ PIT better

−0.5 #24

64 plays #10

Pace

◀ PIT faster

53 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When PIT has the ball

Even matchup

	PIT off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	22.8 #18	21.5 #13	TEN
Yards / play	5.01 #21	5.21 #15	TEN
EPA / play	−0.08 #23	+0.04 #23	Even
Success rate	41% #23	43% #15	TEN

When TEN has the ball

Advantage: PIT defense

	TEN off	PIT def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	21.3 #12	PIT
Yards / play	4.46 #30	4.99 #8	PIT
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	−0.06 #5	PIT
Success rate	40% #24	42% #7	PIT

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

PIT scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PIT scored	5.2 #8	5.3 #22	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	8.8 #5	11.2 #20
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

TEN scoring against the PIT defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
PIT allowed	5.0 #17	8.5 #25	13.5 #27	3.0 #4	4.8 #5	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.