Texans @ Packers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Mon, Jan 4, 2027, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Green Bay Packers

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

HOU 41%

59% GB

Spread

GB -2.5

Total

42.5

model 43

Spread edge

HOU by 0.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -2.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowGB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now42.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -2.5

Total42.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 8, covered 6, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 967%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 8.9 against an average line of 2.7; 51.1 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Very close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	HOU vs TB 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	39–37	L	O39.5
Very close	IND vs TB 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	27–20	W	O44.5
Very close	CHI vs ATL 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	37–17	W	O39.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & total	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 460 games with totals 39.5–45.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs TEN	W26–3WU

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs DET	W31–24O

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

HOU 1–5 GB GB leads · 6 games since 2004 · GB has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 20 2024	Houston Texans 22 @ Green Bay Packers 24	GB -3.5	HOU W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

HOU

Longer bar = better

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#19

#15

Defense

GB better ▶

#10

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

GB better ▶

+0.7 #6

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ HOU faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Even matchup

	HOU off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	20.8 #10	GB
Yards / play	5.66 #11	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	−0.06 #7	GB
Success rate	43% #16	44% #21	HOU

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	23.8 #20	Even
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.18 #14	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	0.00 #18	Even
Success rate	40% #25	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.