Texans @ Eagles: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Thu, Dec 24, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Philadelphia Eagles

Houston Texans

2-4 · Power #11

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Philadelphia Eagles

2-4 · Power #24

projected

HOU 43%

57% PHI

Spread

PHI -2.5

Total

37.5

model 41.5

Spread edge

HOU by 5.5

lean · context

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPHI -2.5

Total37.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowPHI -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now37.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentPHI -2.5

Total37.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like PHI as a 2.5-point home favorite against HOU, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 7.3 against an average line of 2.6; 39.3 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TEN vs HOU 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–23	L	O36.5
Very close	LV vs LAC 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & spread	-3	63–21	W	O36
Very close	GB vs LAR 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & season form	-3	20–3	W	U39.5
Very close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Very close	PIT vs GB 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	23–19	W	O38
Very close	DEN vs CLE 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2	29–12	W	O37.5
Close	LAC vs KC 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-3.5	12–13	L	U35
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Close	NYJ vs CAR 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar season form & situation	-1.5	6–13	L	U39.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
HOU LLLWW	2-4	33%	1-1	1-1
PHI LLWWL	2-4	33%	1-2	0-3

Venue/role: HOU away, as underdog; PHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
HOU UUOUO	3-3	50%	2-4
PHI OUOUU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 170 games with totals 34.5–40.5, 52% went over; 6% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
HOU	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%
PHI	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Houston Texans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	@ GB	L22–24WU
Jan 10	vs TEN	W26–3WU

Philadelphia Eagles

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ SF	L19–23LU
Jan 10	@ NYG	W38–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

HOU 0–6 PHI PHI leads · 6 games since 2002 · PHI has won the last 6 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

HOU+2.4 →+1.6▼ 0.8#11

PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

HOU

Longer bar = better

PHI

#14

Offense

◀ HOU better

#30

#15

Defense

◀ HOU better

#21

+0.5 #11

Turnovers

◀ HOU better

−0.3 #20

63 plays #14

Pace

◀ HOU faster

58 plays #28

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When HOU has the ball

Advantage: HOU offense

	HOU off	PHI def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #15	22.8 #16	Even
Yards / play	5.66 #11	5.38 #17	HOU
EPA / play	+0.04 #13	+0.08 #27	HOU
Success rate	43% #16	45% #25	HOU

When PHI has the ball

Advantage: HOU defense

	PHI off	HOU def	Edge
Points / game	17.7 #29	23.8 #20	HOU
Yards / play	4.38 #32	5.18 #14	HOU
EPA / play	−0.13 #30	0.00 #18	HOU
Success rate	36% #30	41% #6	HOU

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

HOU scoring against the PHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
HOU scored	4.5 #14	8.2 #9	12.7 #11	5.2 #13	6.2 #21	11.3 #18
PHI allowed	5.0 #17	4.3 #6	9.3 #9	3.8 #9	9.7 #31	13.5 #26

PHI scoring against the HOU defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
PHI scored	0.5 #32	12.2 #2	12.7 #11	1.0 #32	4.0 #30	5.0 #32
HOU allowed	2.0 #3	9.2 #28	11.2 #16	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.