Week in numbers
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Biggest Model FavoriteBAL 82%win probability
Did the team the spread moved toward cover? ATS vs the closing line, by how far it moved
| Moved toward | This week | 2026 | 2024–2026 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Any move | — | 36–40–447% | 229–252–448% |
| 1.5+ pts | — | 27–24–253% | 116–117–250% |
| 3+ pts | — | 18–17–151% | 56–58–149% |
| 5+ pts | — | 4–736% | 17–1652% |
| 7+ pts | — | 1–325% | 2–722% |
Covered–didn’t–push; % leaves out pushes and is grey under 10 games; green or red from 10 games. ClickTap a row or count to filter.
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Thursday, Dec 24
1Non-conf
Spread
PHI -2.5
Total
37.5
Over 4
Spread edge
HOU by 5.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Friday, Dec 25
3Division
Spread
CHI -1.5
Total
47.5
Under 0.5
Spread edge
CHI by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
BUF -1.5
Total
46.5
Over 2
Spread edge
BUF by 2
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
Division
Spread
SEA -1.5
Total
47.5
Under 2.5
Spread edge
LAR by 1
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
Sunday, Dec 27
11Division
Spread
TB -1.5
Total
45.5
Under 0.5
Spread edge
ATL by 5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
CIN -1.5
Total
52.5
Under 2.5
Spread edge
CIN by 0.5
no lean
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
MIN -2.5
Total
46.5
Under 3.5
Spread edge
MIN by 3.5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
PIT -3.5
Total
41.5
Over 4.5
Spread edge
CAR by 3
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
LAC -7
Total
45.5
Under 4.5
Spread edge
MIA by 5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
NO -5.5
Total
44.5
Over 3
Spread edge
ARI by 4
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Division
Spread
NE -6.5
Total
40.5
Over 2
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
Division
Spread
BAL -10
Total
43.5
Under 0.5
Spread edge
Even
matches market
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
LV -1.5
Total
42.5
Over 0.5
Spread edge
LV by 5
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
KC -3
Total
46.5
model 46.5
Spread edge
SF by 3
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Non-conf
Spread
DAL -3
Total
51.5
Under 1
Spread edge
JAX by 6
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
Monday, Dec 28
1Non-conf
Spread
DET -4.5
Total
49.5
Over 1.5
Spread edge
DET by 3
lean · context
Spread
Total
Winner
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| Status | Matchup | Spread | Move | Total | Model | Signal | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Loading… | |||||||
Hover a column name for what it means. Records are before kickoff; #N = power rank. Data signal badges: green = ATS, teal = Over, purple = Under; solid = moderate or strong lean (blue left edge on the row); ✓/✗ = how the lean did. ↗ Line toward model the line (or total) has moved toward the model's pick since the open; hover it for how such picks have done. small sample · QB ⓘ quarterback on the injury report (hover or tap it to see who). In our 2023–26 backtest, moderate-or-stronger ATS leans went 117-99 (54%) and total leans 21-24 (47%), so treat them as context, not picks.