Giants @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Mon, Dec 28, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Detroit Lions

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

New York Giants

3-2-1 · Power #22

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

NYG 33%

67% DET

Spread

DET -4.5

Total

49.5

model 51

Spread edge

DET by 3

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -4.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 4.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 8, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 4.8; 50.8 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	DET vs DEN 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-5.5	42–17	W	O49
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	DAL vs MIN 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	26–34	L	O47.5
Very close	DET vs TB 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-6	31–23	W	O50
Very close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Very close	HOU vs ARI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	21–16	L	U48
Close	HOU vs DEN 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	22–17	W	U47
Close	WSH vs CHI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	24–25	L	O48.5
Close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & rest	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG LWWWL	4-2	67%	1-1	3-2
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG UUOOO	4-2	67%	3-2-1
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	5-4-1 56%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Giants

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ DAL	W28–20WO
Jan 10	vs PHI	L20–38LO

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ CHI	W19–16WU
Jan 10	@ GB	L24–31O

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NYG 4–7 DET DET leads · 11 games since 2000 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 23 2025	New York Giants 27 @ Detroit Lions 34	DET -14.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−1.1 →−1.9▼ 0.8#22

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

NYG

Longer bar = better

DET

#19

Offense

DET better ▶

#21

Defense

◀ NYG better

#28

−0.3 #21

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.8 #5

66 plays #8

Pace

Even

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Advantage: NYG offense

	NYG off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	22.7 #19	29.6 #30	NYG
Yards / play	5.03 #20	5.63 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #18	+0.15 #31	NYG
Success rate	42% #18	48% #28	NYG

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	23.3 #19	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.43 #20	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	+0.02 #21	DET
Success rate	49% #3	44% #22	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.8 #20	5.8 #21	9.7 #20	5.2 #13	7.8 #13	13.0 #9
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
NYG allowed	4.5 #15	5.5 #9	10.0 #11	7.5 #28	5.8 #8	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.