Packers @ Bears: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Fri, Dec 25, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

Fri 1:00 PM ET

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

GB 44%

56% CHI

Spread

CHI -1.5

Total

47.5

model 47

Spread edge

CHI by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -1.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 1.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Above normal · usually 47%

Overs above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 2.4; 49.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 8 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & total	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	30–21	W	O47.5
Close	BUF vs KC 2023 · Postseason · close · similar total & season form	-2.5	24–27	L	O46
Close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar season form & total	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 4	vs HOU	W24–22LU
Jan 10	vs DET	W31–24O

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs DET	L16–19LU
Jan 10	@ MIN	L3–9LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

GB 41–16 CHI GB leads · 57 games since 1999 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2026	Chicago Bears 7 @ Green Bay Packers 31	CHI -1.5	GB W
Jan 10 2025	Green Bay Packers 27 @ Chicago Bears 31	GB -1.5	CHI W
Dec 20 2025	Green Bay Packers 16 @ Chicago Bears 22	CHI -1.5	CHI W
Dec 7 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Green Bay Packers 28	GB -6.5	GB W
Jan 5 2024	Chicago Bears 24 @ Green Bay Packers 22	GB -10.5	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

CHI

#19

Offense

CHI better ▶

#11

#10

Defense

◀ GB better

#17

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.1 #18

61 plays #22

Pace

CHI faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	20.4 #8	CHI
Yards / play	5.43 #14	6.25 #32	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	0.00 #19	Even
Success rate	40% #25	42% #8	CHI

When CHI has the ball

Even matchup

	CHI off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	20.8 #10	Even
Yards / play	5.42 #15	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	−0.06 #7	Even
Success rate	47% #10	44% #21	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.