Cardinals @ Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New Orleans Saints

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Arizona Cardinals

2-4 · Power #28

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

ARI 32%

68% NO

Spread

NO -5.5

Total

44.5

model 47.5

Spread edge

ARI by 4

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -5.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNO -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now44.5

Line context

Home favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 69%, covered 48% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNO -5.5

Total44.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NO as a 5.5-point home favorite against ARI, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 8 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 53%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.4 against an average line of 5.3; 54 points a game (usually 46). Of the 8 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	IND vs TEN 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	38–30	W	O43.5
Very close	SEA vs WSH 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & total	-6	29–26	L	O44
Very close	HOU vs TEN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	26–3	W	U44
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Very close	TB vs ATL 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & total	-6	28–29	L	O43.5
Very close	CIN vs NYJ 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	38–39	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Very close	MIA vs NYJ 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	32–26	L	O45.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-5.5	22–27	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ARI LWLLW	3-3	50%	3-1	3-2
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	1-2

Venue/role: ARI away, as underdog; NO home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ARI UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 510 games with totals 41.5–47.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ARI	2-8 20%	3-7 30%	5-5 50%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Arizona Cardinals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs LV	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	vs SF	L30–36WO

New Orleans Saints

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	@ ATL	L24–45LO
Jan 10	vs TB	W24–20WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

ARI 5–6 NO NO leads · 11 games since 2000 · ARI has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 7 2025	Arizona Cardinals 20 @ New Orleans Saints 13	ARI -5.5	ARI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ARI−1.3 →−2.5▼ 1.2#28

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

ARI

Longer bar = better

#20

Offense

Even

#19

#29

Defense

Even

#29

+0.3 #13

Turnovers

◀ ARI better

−0.5 #23

67 plays #4

Pace

Even

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ARI has the ball

Advantage: ARI offense

	ARI off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	21.0 #24	29.7 #31	ARI
Yards / play	4.56 #28	5.84 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	+0.07 #25	ARI
Success rate	46% #11	49% #31	ARI

When NO has the ball

Advantage: NO offense

	NO off	ARI def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	29.7 #32	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	6.01 #30	NO
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	+0.08 #28	NO
Success rate	42% #20	45% #24	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ARI scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ARI scored	5.2 #8	4.7 #26	9.8 #19	4.5 #18	6.7 #19	11.2 #20
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the ARI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
ARI allowed	4.5 #15	9.3 #30	13.8 #31	7.5 #28	8.3 #26	15.8 #29

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.