Patriots @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at New York Jets · Division game

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

NE 72%

28% NYJ

Spread

NE -6.5

Total

40.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -6.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -6.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now40.5

Line context

Road favorites of 5.5–7.5 since 2023: won 74%, covered 45% (76 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -6.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 6.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 956%

Normal range · usually 48%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 55%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.7 against an average line of 6.6; 46.9 points a game (usually 46.3). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	GB @ CHI 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	20–19	L	U41.5
Very close	LAC @ LV 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	34–20	W	O41.5
Very close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar total & season form	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Very close	SEA @ LAR 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	30–25	L	O38.5
Very close	SEA @ CAR 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	27–10	W	U42.5
Very close	KC @ GB 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & season form	-6	19–27	L	O44
Close	MIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar total & rest	-5.5	23–13	W	U40.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & rest	-7	29–18	W	O43.5
Close	PHI @ WSH 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	38–31	P	O42.5
Close	BAL @ CLE 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	23–16	L	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	2-1
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	3-1-1

Venue/role: NE away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 371 games with totals 37.5–43.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs DEN	W10–7LU
Jan 10	vs MIA	W38–10WO

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs MIN	L17–23LU
Jan 10	@ BUF	L8–35LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NE 43–14 NYJ NE leads · 57 games since 1999 · NE has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2026	New York Jets 19 @ New England Patriots 26	NE -7.5	NYJ W
Dec 28 2025	New England Patriots 42 @ New York Jets 10	NE -12.5	NE W
Nov 13 2025	New York Jets 14 @ New England Patriots 27	NE -12.5	NE W
Oct 27 2024	New York Jets 22 @ New England Patriots 25	NYJ -7.5	NE W
Sep 19 2024	New England Patriots 3 @ New York Jets 24	NYJ -6.5	NYJ W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#11

Offense

◀ NE better

#21

#16

Defense

NYJ better ▶

#11

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.7 #8

62 plays #16

Pace

◀ NE faster

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	6.00 #5	4.80 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.05 #8	Even
Success rate	45% #12	44% #23	NE

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.36 #16	NE
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.02 #20	Even
Success rate	44% #15	44% #20	NYJ

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.