Patriots @ Chiefs: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Mon, Dec 21, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Kansas City Chiefs

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

NE 42%

58% KC

Spread

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Total

—

model 45

Model line

KC -2

KC 58% to win

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Winner

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

Now—

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now—

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	—
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	—

Venue/role: NE away; KC home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ NYJ	W26–19LO
Jan 3	vs DEN	W10–7LU
Jan 10	vs MIA	W38–10WO

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs SF	W28–18WU
Jan 3	@ LAC	W22–6WU
Jan 10	vs LV	W30–27LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

NE 8–7 KC NE leads · 15 games since 1999 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 17 2023	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ New England Patriots 17	KC -10	P

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

#11

Offense

KC better ▶

#16

Defense

KC better ▶

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.0 #2

62 plays #16

Pace

Even

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	NE off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	6.00 #5	4.81 #6	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	45% #12	38% #3	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	20.4 #9	Even
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.36 #16	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	+0.02 #20	KC
Success rate	49% #2	44% #20	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

KC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.