Chiefs @ Bengals: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Cincinnati Bengals

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Cincinnati Bengals

3-2 · Power #15

projected

KC 46%

54% CIN

Spread

CIN -1.5

Total

48.5

model 48

Spread edge

KC by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCIN -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCIN -1.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 1.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 8, covered 8, and 3 went over the total.

Compare by

Customize filters

Only include

Show up to

games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.1 against an average line of 2.3; 47.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Very close	BUF vs DAL 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	31–10	W	U49
Very close	KC vs BUF 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar situation & total	-2	17–20	L	U49
Very close	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Very close	MIA vs DAL 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	22–20	W	U48.5
Very close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Very close	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Very close	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Very close	KC vs DET 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	30–17	W	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
CIN WWLLL	2-3	40%	1-1	1-3

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; CIN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
CIN OUOUO	3-2	60%	3-2

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
CIN	5-5 50%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	vs NE	W27–17PO
Dec 27	vs SF	W28–18WU
Jan 3	@ LAC	W22–6WU

Cincinnati Bengals

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ CAR	W34–24WO
Dec 27	@ IND	W34–14WO
Dec 31	vs BAL	L0–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

KC 6–9 CIN CIN leads · 15 games since 2003 · KC has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 15 2024	Cincinnati Bengals 25 @ Kansas City Chiefs 26	KC -6.5	CIN W
Dec 31 2023	Cincinnati Bengals 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 25	KC -7.5	KC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

CIN−1.2 →+0.5▲ 1.7#15

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

Longer bar = better

CIN

Offense

◀ KC better

#10

Defense

◀ KC better

#17

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

+0.4 #12

62 plays #19

Pace

Even

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	21.8 #14	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.61 #23	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.03 #15	KC
Success rate	49% #2	43% #14	KC

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	CIN off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	25.6 #10	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	5.49 #12	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	+0.07 #9	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	47% #8	38% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
CIN allowed	5.4 #24	4.6 #7	10.0 #11	5.2 #20	6.6 #14	11.8 #16

CIN scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.6 #6	8.8 #8	14.4 #6	6.0 #11	5.2 #25	11.2 #19
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.