Broncos @ Jets: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New York Jets

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

DEN 68%

32% NYJ

Spread

DEN -5.5

Total

39.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

NYJ by 2

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -5.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now39.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -5.5

Total39.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 5.5-point road favorite at NYJ, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.3 against an average line of 5.4; 35.9 points a game (usually 46). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NO @ NYG 2024 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	14–11	L	U41.5
Close	BAL @ PIT 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar season form & situation	-4.5	24–26	L	O41.5
Close	LAC @ NE 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	40–7	W	O41.5
Close	TB @ NYG 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar situation & total	-6.5	30–7	W	U40.5
Close	SF @ CLE 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	26–8	W	U35.5
Close	SEA @ LAR 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	30–25	L	O38.5
Close	LAR @ NE 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	28–22	W	O42.5
Close	GB @ NYG 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	22–24	L	O37
Close	LAC @ NE 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar situation & total	-4.5	6–0	W	U38.5
Close	SEA @ CHI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & season form	-4.5	6–3	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	1-2	3-0
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-0	3-1-1

Venue/role: DEN away, as favorite; NYJ home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4

In 302 games with totals 36.5–42.5, 53% went over; 4% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 29% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Denver Broncos

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ LV	W24–17LO
Dec 25	vs BUF	W33–30WO
Jan 3	@ NE	L7–10WU

New York Jets

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ ARI	L6–31LU
Dec 27	vs NE	L19–26WO
Jan 3	vs MIN	L17–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

DEN 10–6 NYJ DEN leads · 16 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2025	Denver Broncos 13 @ New York Jets 11	DEN -6.5	NYJ W
Sep 29 2024	Denver Broncos 10 @ New York Jets 9	NYJ -8.5	DEN W
Oct 8 2023	New York Jets 31 @ Denver Broncos 21	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

DEN

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#28

Offense

NYJ better ▶

#21

Defense

Even

#11

+0.7 #7

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #8

57 plays #30

Pace

Even

59 plays #27

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: NYJ defense

	DEN off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	20.3 #7	NYJ
Yards / play	4.40 #31	4.80 #5	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.05 #8	NYJ
Success rate	38% #28	44% #23	NYJ

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	NYJ off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.05 #13	DEN
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	44% #15	40% #4	DEN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DEN scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

NYJ scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.