Vikings @ Patriots: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Thu, Dec 10, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 14 · at New England Patriots

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

MIN 35%

65% NE

Spread

NE -4.5

Total

43.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

MIN by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -4.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -4.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 4.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.7 against an average line of 4.4; 39.7 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & total	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Very close	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & rest	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Very close	KC vs LAC 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-5.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	10–20	L	U41.5
Very close	KC vs HOU 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	27–19	W	O42.5
Very close	PHI vs PIT 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-5.5	27–13	W	U43.5
Very close	LAC vs MIN 2025 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & total	-3.5	37–10	W	O44.5
Very close	KC vs LAC 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-5.5	13–16	L	U41.5
Close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Close	DEN vs JAX 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	20–34	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-0
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs DET	W23–10WU
Dec 27	vs WSH	W31–0WU
Jan 3	@ NYJ	W23–17WU

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 21	@ KC	L17–27PO
Dec 27	@ NYJ	W26–19LO
Jan 3	vs DEN	W10–7LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

MIN 2–5 NE NE leads · 7 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

MIN

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

NE better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ MIN better

#16

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

−1.0 #30

61 plays #20

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	MIN off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.36 #16	NE
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.02 #20	NE
Success rate	36% #32	44% #20	NE

When NE has the ball

Advantage: MIN defense

	NE off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	12.8 #1	MIN
Yards / play	6.00 #5	4.62 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.21 #1	MIN
Success rate	45% #12	33% #1	MIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

NE scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.