Titans @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Detroit Lions

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tennessee Titans

1-5 · Power #32

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

TEN 23%

77% DET

Spread

DET -7.5

Total

47.5

model 47

Spread edge

DET by 5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -7.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDET -7.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (125 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDET -7.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 7.5-point home favorite against TEN, the favorite won 7, covered 5, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.6 against an average line of 7.5; 48.4 points a game (usually 47). Of the 5 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL vs CAR 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	38–44	L	O48.5
Very close	TB vs LV 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar total & season form	-6.5	28–13	W	U47.5
Very close	DET vs CHI 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-8	31–26	L	O48
Close	SF vs CAR 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-7	20–9	W	U48.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	DAL vs TB 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar season form & situation	-8.5	16–24	L	U49.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2024 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	34–15	W	O45.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	MIA vs NE 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	31–17	W	O46.5
Close	DET vs LV 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & rest	-7	26–14	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TEN WLWLW	3-3	50%	2-1	3-2
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: TEN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TEN OUOUO	3-3	50%	1-5
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TEN	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	6-4 60%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tennessee Titans

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs IND	W26–20WO
Dec 27	@ LV	L10–20LU
Jan 3	vs PIT	L16–20LP

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ MIN	L10–23LU
Dec 28	vs NYG	W34–27LO
Jan 3	@ CHI	W19–16WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

TEN 6–1 DET TEN leads · 7 games since 2001 · DET has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 27 2024	Tennessee Titans 14 @ Detroit Lions 52	DET -12.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TEN−3.1 →−5.8▼ 2.7#32

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

TEN

Longer bar = better

DET

#29

Offense

DET better ▶

#17

Defense

◀ TEN better

#28

−0.5 #24

Turnovers

DET better ▶

+0.8 #5

53 plays #32

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TEN has the ball

Even matchup

	TEN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #31	29.6 #30	Even
Yards / play	4.46 #30	5.63 #24	DET
EPA / play	−0.15 #31	+0.15 #31	Even
Success rate	40% #24	48% #28	Even

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	TEN def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	21.5 #13	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	5.21 #15	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	+0.04 #23	DET
Success rate	49% #3	43% #15	DET

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TEN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TEN scored	3.3 #23	0.5 #32	3.8 #32	2.7 #27	7.5 #16	10.2 #26
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the TEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
TEN allowed	3.3 #10	10.3 #32	13.7 #29	3.8 #9	4.0 #3	7.8 #3

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.