Bears @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 14 · at Miami Dolphins

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

CHI 70%

30% MIA

Spread

CHI -5.5

Total

46.5

model 46

Spread edge

CHI by 3

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -5.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -5.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Road favorites of 4.5–6.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 53% (73 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -5.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 5.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 5, covered 2, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

2 of 1020%

Below normal · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 1.2 against an average line of 5.8; 47.6 points a game (usually 46). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ARI @ CAR 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & situation	-5.5	30–36	L	O47.5
Very close	TB @ CAR 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & rest	-6.5	26–23	L	O46.5
Very close	LAR @ NYG 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6	26–25	L	O43.5
Very close	TB @ DAL 2024 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-4.5	24–26	L	O47.5
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & situation	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Very close	PHI @ NYG 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-5	10–27	L	U43
Very close	JAX @ TEN 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-6	25–3	W	U42.5
Very close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & rest	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	CIN @ MIA 2026 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	31–24	L	O45.5
Close	PHI @ SEA 2023 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-5	17–20	L	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	2-1	4-2
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: CHI away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 19	@ BUF	No meeting since 2023
Dec 25	vs GB	L7–31LU
Jan 3	vs DET	L16–19LU

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	@ GB	L17–30LU
Dec 27	vs LAC	L27–29WO
Jan 3	vs BUF	W30–13WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

CHI 1–5 MIA MIA leads · 6 games since 2002 · MIA has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

CHI

Longer bar = better

MIA

#11

Offense

◀ CHI better

#27

#17

Defense

◀ CHI better

#26

−0.1 #18

Turnovers

◀ CHI better

−0.8 #28

72 plays #1

Pace

◀ CHI faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	26.4 #24	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.50 #21	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.11 #29	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	49% #30	CHI

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: CHI defense

	MIA off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	20.4 #8	CHI
Yards / play	5.11 #19	6.25 #32	MIA
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	0.00 #19	CHI
Success rate	38% #29	42% #8	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CHI scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.