Bengals @ Dolphins: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Miami Dolphins

Weather at kickoff91°F9 mphDryWeather watch ›

Cincinnati Bengals

2-2 · Power #15

▲ winner

Final

Miami Dolphins

0-4 · Power #31

final

Closing spread

CIN -7.5

✓ MIA W

Total

45.5

▲ Over · 55 pts

Model before kickoff

CIN 26–19 MIA

✓ CIN (74%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenCIN -5.5

2 → CIN

CloseCIN -7.5

2 pts toward Cincinnati Bengals

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Close45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened CIN -5.5 · closed CIN -7.5 · moved 2 toward CINmodel CIN -5

model CIN -5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Road favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 73%, covered 41% (55 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (51 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenCIN -5.5

CloseCIN -7.5

Total48.5 → 45.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CIN as a 7.5-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: CIN won 31–24; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 55 points went over 45.5, as in 6 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 61%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.8 against an average line of 6.8; 44.4 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar rest & situation	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Very close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · very close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Very close	MIN @ JAX 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar rest & spread	-7.5	12–7	L	U42.5
Very close	PHI @ WSH 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-7	29–18	W	O43.5
Very close	WSH @ DAL 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-7.5	23–19	L	U43.5
Close	CIN @ CLE 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	21–14	W	U42.5
Close	LAC @ NYG 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	18–21	L	U43.5
Close	PHI @ TEN 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar rest & spread	-7	24–20	L	O39.5
Close	PHI @ NYG 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-7.5	17–34	L	O41.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CIN WWLL	2-2	50%	1-1	1-2
MIA LLLW	1-3	25%	0-1	1-3

Venue/role: CIN away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CIN OUOU	2-2	50%	2-2
MIA UOUU	1-3	25%	0-4

Went over in Q4. Of 245 earlier overs in games with totals 42.5–48.5, 23% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CIN	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%
MIA	3-7 30%	3-6 33%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

CIN 7–6 MIA CIN leads · 13 games since 2000 · CIN has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 21 2025	Cincinnati Bengals 45 @ Miami Dolphins 21	CIN -3.5	CIN W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CIN−1.2 →+0.1▲ 1.3#13

MIA−1.7 →−4.2▼ 2.5#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CIN

Longer bar = better

MIA

#12

Offense

◀ CIN better

#28

#14

Defense

◀ CIN better

#25

0.0 #17

Turnovers

◀ CIN better

−0.5 #22

62 plays #14

Pace

◀ CIN faster

53 plays #32

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CIN has the ball

Advantage: CIN offense

	CIN off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	24.3 #14	25.3 #21	CIN
Yards / play	5.65 #12	5.66 #22	CIN
EPA / play	+0.05 #10	+0.10 #28	CIN
Success rate	45% #12	47% #27	CIN

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: CIN defense

	MIA off	CIN def	Edge
Points / game	11.5 #32	21.3 #13	CIN
Yards / play	5.10 #19	5.72 #24	MIA
EPA / play	−0.14 #31	−0.03 #10	CIN
Success rate	35% #31	42% #9	CIN

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CIN scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CIN scored	5.3 #8	7.5 #11	12.8 #10	5.8 #11	5.8 #22	11.5 #13
MIA allowed	6.0 #25	7.5 #19	13.5 #26	8.5 #31	3.3 #3	11.8 #15

MIA scoring against the CIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	1.8 #28	3.0 #29	4.8 #31	5.0 #16	1.8 #32	6.8 #30
CIN allowed	5.0 #18	5.8 #9	10.8 #14	5.8 #22	4.8 #5	10.5 #11

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.