Browns @ Jets: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at New York Jets

Weather at kickoff58°F8 mphgusts 20Wet0.2 mmWet Over 51% of 104 games since 2023Weather watch ›

Cleveland Browns

3-1 · Power #30

final

Final

New York Jets

1-3 · Power #27

▲ winner

Closing spread

NYJ -2.5

✓ NYJ W

Total

38.5

▼ Under · 29 pts

Model before kickoff

CLE 19–21 NYJ

✓ NYJ (59%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenNYJ -1.5

1 → NYJ

CloseNYJ -2.5

1 pt toward New York Jets

Total

Open38.5

no move

Close38.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened NYJ -1.5 · closed NYJ -2.5 · moved 1 toward NYJmodel NYJ -2

model NYJ -2

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 63%, covered 52% (227 games)ⓘ

Lines that moved 1–1.5 pts toward the favorite: that team covered 47% (130 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenNYJ -1.5

CloseNYJ -2.5

Total38.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NYJ as a 2.5-point home favorite against CLE, the favorite won 5, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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This game: NYJ won 17–12; the favorite covered, as in 4 of the 10 similar games. 29 points stayed under 38.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 1.1 against an average line of 3.1; 46.3 points a game (usually 44.6). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	PIT vs MIA 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-3	28–15	W	U43.5
Close	ATL vs NO 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-3.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	HOU vs JAX 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	36–29	W	O38.5
Close	TEN vs HOU 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar rest & spread	-2.5	14–23	L	O36.5
Close	IND vs CHI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	21–16	W	U43.5
Close	TEN vs IND 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-2.5	17–20	L	U41.5
Close	DEN vs LV 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	34–18	W	O35.5
Close	NYJ vs IND 2024 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & team ratings	-4.5	27–28	L	O43.5
Close	TEN vs GB 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	14–30	L	O36.5
Close	ATL vs CAR 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar season form	-4.5	27–30	L	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
CLE LWWW	3-1	75%	1-1	3-1
NYJ WWPL	2-1-1	67%	1-0	—

Venue/role: CLE away, as underdog; NYJ home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
CLE OOUO	3-1	75%	3-1
NYJ UUOU	1-3	25%	1-3

Stayed under: it needed 26 in the 4th quarter and got 16. 54% of games with totals 35.5–41.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
CLE	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	5-5 50%
NYJ	2-8 20%	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

CLE 6–10 NYJ NYJ leads · 16 games since 2002 · NYJ has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 9 2025	Cleveland Browns 20 @ New York Jets 27	CLE -2.5	NYJ W
Dec 28 2023	New York Jets 20 @ Cleveland Browns 37	CLE -7	CLE W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

CLE−1.8 →−2.9▼ 1.1#30

NYJ−3.3 →−2.8▲ 0.5#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

CLE

Longer bar = better

NYJ

#19

Offense

Even

#19

#18

Defense

Even

#16

−0.3 #18

Turnovers

NYJ better ▶

+0.8 #12

57 plays #27

Pace

Even

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When CLE has the ball

Even matchup

	CLE off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	20.3 #22	21.0 #12	NYJ
Yards / play	5.11 #18	5.03 #8	NYJ
EPA / play	−0.02 #17	0.00 #15	Even
Success rate	43% #17	49% #30	CLE

When NYJ has the ball

Even matchup

	NYJ off	CLE def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #25	23.8 #19	CLE
Yards / play	5.02 #22	5.45 #17	CLE
EPA / play	+0.02 #12	+0.02 #17	NYJ
Success rate	44% #16	44% #19	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

CLE scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CLE scored	0.8 #31	8.5 #8	9.3 #23	3.3 #21	7.8 #11	11.0 #17
NYJ allowed	2.5 #6	5.8 #9	8.3 #4	3.5 #6	8.5 #24	12.0 #16

NYJ scoring against the CLE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	1.8 #28	5.0 #24	6.8 #28	5.8 #11	6.5 #19	12.3 #11
CLE allowed	6.8 #28	4.8 #6	11.5 #16	5.8 #22	6.5 #15	12.3 #18

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.