Bills @ Rams: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Mon, Oct 12, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Los Angeles Rams

Weather at kickoff67°F8 mphDryWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

3-1 · Power #9

▲ winner

Final

Los Angeles Rams

2-2 · Power #5

final

Closing spread

LAR -3.5

✓ BUF W

Total

55.5

▲ Over · 71 pts

Model before kickoff

BUF 23–26 LAR

✗ LAR (62%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -3

CloseLAR -3.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenLAR -3

0.5 → LAR

CloseLAR -3.5

0.5 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open53.5

▲ 2

Close55.5

Up 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3 · closed LAR -3.5 · moved 0.5 toward LARmodel LAR -1.5

model LAR -1.5

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (232 games)ⓘ

Moved off 3The team the line moved toward covered 26% (35 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenLAR -3

CloseLAR -3.5

Total53.5 → 55.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 3.5-point home favorite against BUF, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BUF won 37–34 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 5 of the 10 similar games. 71 points went over 55.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 2.5 against an average line of 4.1; 62.5 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs WSH 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–23	L	U51.5
Close	DET vs DAL 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	44–30	W	O55.5
Close	DEN vs DAL 2025 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	44–24	W	O51.5
Close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · close · similar spread & rest	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Close	BAL vs PHI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	19–24	L	U51.5
Close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar spread & situation	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Close	BAL vs DET 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar rest & situation	-4.5	30–38	L	O53.5
Close	BUF vs DET 2026 · Week 2 · close · similar total & situation	-5.5	41–31	W	O54.5
Close	LAR vs DET 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & rest	-5.5	41–34	W	O54.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWWL	3-1	75%	1-0	—
LAR LWLL	1-3	25%	1-0	1-2

Venue/role: BUF away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OOUO	3-1	75%	3-1
LAR UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 16 earlier overs in games with totals 52.5–58.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
LAR	5-5 50%	3-7 30%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

BUF 6–2 LAR BUF leads · 8 games since 2004 · BUF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 8 2024	Buffalo Bills 42 @ Los Angeles Rams 44	BUF -3.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.5▲ 0.4#7

LAR+3.0 →+4.0▲ 1.0#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BUF

Longer bar = better

LAR

Offense

◀ BUF better

#12

#26

Defense

LAR better ▶

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

◀ BUF better

−1.3 #32

60 plays #22

Pace

LAR faster ▶

69 plays #2

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	31.8 #2	20.8 #8	BUF
Yards / play	6.49 #2	4.18 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.19 #2	−0.12 #3	Even
Success rate	48% #6	39% #4	Even

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.3 #23	26.8 #25	Even
Yards / play	6.04 #6	5.47 #20	LAR
EPA / play	+0.03 #11	+0.11 #28	LAR
Success rate	47% #8	48% #29	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #18	15.3 #1	19.5 #1	2.5 #29	9.8 #3	12.3 #10
LAR allowed	1.5 #3	6.8 #17	8.3 #6	6.5 #24	6.0 #9	12.5 #20

LAR scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	4.3 #18	7.5 #12	11.8 #16	1.8 #31	7.8 #11	9.5 #27
BUF allowed	6.0 #25	7.8 #21	13.8 #27	4.3 #15	8.8 #28	13.0 #22

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.