Ravens @ Falcons: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 8:20 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Atlanta Falcons

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Baltimore Ravens

3-1 · Power #10

▲ winner

Final

Atlanta Falcons

2-2 · Power #18

final

Closing spread

ATL -3

✓ BAL W

Total

44.5

▲ Over · 53 pts

Model before kickoff

BAL 21–24 ATL

✗ ATL (61%) lost

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseATL -3

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenBAL -4.5

7.5 → ATL

CloseATL -3

7.5 pts toward Atlanta Falcons

Total

Open48.5

▼ 4

Close44.5

Down 4 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened BAL -4.5 · closed ATL -3 · moved 7.5 toward ATLmodel ATL -4

model ATL -4

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (201 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (58 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenBAL -4.5

CloseATL -3

Total48.5 → 44.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like ATL as a 3-point home favorite against BAL, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: BAL won 30–23 outright; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 1 of the 10 similar games. 53 points went over 44.5, as in 7 of 10.

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

8 of 989%

Above normal · usually 51%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 48%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.6 against an average line of 3.3; 50.2 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ARI vs SF 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar total & rest	-4.5	47–24	W	O42.5
Close	ATL vs WSH 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-2.5	34–27	W	O44.5
Loose	GB vs SF 2024 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest & season form	-6.5	38–10	W	O44.5
Loose	LAR vs NO 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form	-4	30–22	W	O45.5
Loose	TB vs NO 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form	-2.5	13–23	L	U42.5
Loose	CIN vs MIN 2023 · Week 15 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	27–24	P	O41.5
Loose	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · loose · similar rest & season form	-3	34–14	W	O45
Loose	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Loose	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar season form & rest	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Loose	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest	-2.5	17–9	W	U46

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BAL WLPL	1-2-1	33%	1-0	—
ATL LLWW	2-2	50%	0-1	—

Venue/role: BAL away, as underdog; ATL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BAL OUOO	3-1	75%	3-1
ATL UUOO	2-2	50%	2-2

Went over in Q4. Of 260 earlier overs in games with totals 41.5–47.5, 24% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BAL	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	7-3 70%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

The series

BAL 6–2 ATL BAL leads · 8 games since 1999 · BAL has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BAL+0.7 →+1.9▲ 1.2#8

ATL−0.6 →−0.3▲ 0.3#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

BAL

Longer bar = better

ATL

Offense

◀ BAL better

#11

#16

Defense

ATL better ▶

#10

+0.8 #7

Turnovers

◀ BAL better

−1.3 #31

60 plays #21

Pace

ATL faster ▶

62 plays #17

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BAL has the ball

Advantage: BAL offense

	BAL off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	29.0 #6	23.0 #20	BAL
Yards / play	6.61 #1	4.89 #7	BAL
EPA / play	+0.19 #3	−0.06 #9	BAL
Success rate	52% #2	38% #2	Even

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	BAL def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #13	24.0 #21	ATL
Yards / play	5.86 #8	5.13 #11	Even
EPA / play	−0.02 #19	−0.02 #16	Even
Success rate	49% #3	43% #15	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BAL scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BAL scored	8.8 #1	12.8 #3	21.5 #1	2.5 #28	5.0 #23	7.5 #30
ATL allowed	5.0 #18	6.8 #16	11.8 #20	4.3 #14	7.0 #19	11.3 #13

ATL scoring against the BAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	7.0 #3	5.8 #21	12.8 #12	4.3 #20	7.0 #16	11.3 #17
BAL allowed	5.8 #25	4.0 #3	9.8 #10	4.3 #14	10.0 #31	14.3 #26

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.