Giants @ Commanders: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 5, 2026)

Sun, Oct 11, 2026, 1:00 PM EDTWeek 5 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Weather at kickoff64°F10 mphgusts 25Wet0.0 mmWindy Over 46% of 93 games since 2023Weather watch ›

New York Giants

3-1 · Power #22

▲ winner

Final

Washington Commanders

1-3 · Power #26

▲ winner

Closing spread

WSH -3.5

✓ NYG W

Total

41.5

▲ Over · 54 pts

Model before kickoff

NYG 20–23 WSH

WSH 62%

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total48.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenWSH -2.5

1 → WSH

CloseWSH -3.5

1 pt toward Washington Commanders

Total

Open48.5

▼ 7

Close41.5

Down 7 since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened WSH -2.5 · closed WSH -3.5 · moved 1 toward WSHmodel WSH -1

model WSH -1

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 53% (227 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 44% (57 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenWSH -2.5

CloseWSH -3.5

Total48.5 → 41.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like WSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against NYG, the favorite won 7, covered 4, and 3 went over the total.

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This game: It ended 27–27; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 6 of the 10 similar games. 54 points went over 41.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 3; 33.5 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 3 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	NYJ vs CAR 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & season form	-1.5	6–13	L	U39.5
Close	CHI vs NYG 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar rest & spread	-4.5	24–20	L	U44.5
Close	SEA vs PIT 2023 · Week 17 · close · similar rest & team ratings	-4	23–30	L	O40.5
Loose	IND vs LV 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	23–20	L	O42.5
Loose	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar rest & season form	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Loose	CLE vs MIA 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	31–6	W	O35.5
Loose	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & situation	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Loose	NYG vs TEN 2026 · Week 3 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	12–7	W	U37.5
Loose	DEN vs LAC 2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar rest & team ratings	-3.5	16–9	W	U39
Loose	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-2.5	20–6	W	U39

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYG WLWW	3-1	75%	0-1	2-1
WSH WLWL	2-2	50%	1-0	—

Venue/role: NYG away, as underdog; WSH home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYG OUUO	2-2	50%	3-1
WSH OOOU	3-1	75%	1-3

Went over in Q4. Of 213 earlier overs in games with totals 38.5–44.5, 25% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYG	5-5 50%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
WSH	3-7 30%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYG 32–21 WSH (2 tied) NYG leads · 55 games since 1999

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 14 2025	Washington Commanders 29 @ New York Giants 21	NYG -3	WSH W
Sep 7 2025	New York Giants 6 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -5.5	WSH W
Nov 3 2024	Washington Commanders 27 @ New York Giants 22	WSH -3.5	WSH W
Sep 15 2024	New York Giants 18 @ Washington Commanders 21	WSH -1.5	WSH W
Nov 19 2023	New York Giants 31 @ Washington Commanders 19	WSH -7.5	NYG W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYG−1.1 →−1.4▼ 0.3#23

WSH−1.6 →−2.2▼ 0.6#28

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW4

NYG

Longer bar = better

WSH

#25

Offense

Even

#23

#16

Defense

◀ NYG better

#24

+0.8 #11

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+0.8 #6

61 plays #19

Pace

WSH faster ▶

65 plays #8

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYG has the ball

Even matchup

	NYG off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	20.5 #21	30.5 #30	NYG
Yards / play	4.68 #29	5.67 #23	WSH
EPA / play	−0.05 #22	+0.03 #20	Even
Success rate	40% #27	46% #23	Even

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: NYG defense

	WSH off	NYG def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #16	19.8 #8	NYG
Yards / play	4.84 #27	5.42 #16	NYG
EPA / play	−0.04 #21	+0.02 #16	NYG
Success rate	39% #29	46% #25	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYG scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYG scored	3.3 #24	8.0 #10	11.3 #14	5.3 #15	4.0 #28	9.3 #23
WSH allowed	2.5 #6	10.3 #30	12.8 #22	7.5 #27	10.3 #31	17.8 #31

WSH scoring against the NYG defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.0 #19	6.5 #16	10.5 #21	4.3 #17	7.3 #14	11.5 #13
NYG allowed	5.3 #20	4.3 #4	9.5 #10	5.3 #20	5.0 #7	10.3 #10

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.