Commanders @ 49ers: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 6, 2026)

Mon, Oct 19, 2026, 8:15 PM EDTWeek 6 · at San Francisco 49ers

Weather at kickoff65°F12 mphDryWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

1-3-1 · Power #26

final

Final

San Francisco 49ers

5-0 · Power #3

▲ winner

Closing spread

SF -7.5

✓ WSH W

Total

51.5

▼ Under · 40 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 19–27 SF

✓ SF (75%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Game recap · 1:12

Washington Commanders at San Francisco 49ers: game recap

Made automatically (Oct 20, 12:24 AM ET). The “Model before kickoff” score on this card was updated after the video was made, so the video quotes an older one.

Watch on YouTube ↗More game recaps ›

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenSF -5.5

2 → SF

CloseSF -7.5

2 pts toward San Francisco 49ers

Total

Open50.5

▲ 1

Close51.5

Up 1 since the open

Line movement

Pre-kickoff prices from ESPN · tap a dot

Opened SF -5.5 · closed SF -7.5 · moved 2 toward SFmodel SF -8

model SF -8

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (124 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (54 games since 2024)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenSF -5.5

CloseSF -7.5

Total50.5 → 51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

9 sportsbooks · prices at kickoff

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	WSH	SF	Over	Under	WSH	SF
BetMGMMGM	+7.5-112	-7.5-105	52-108	52-110	+333	-425
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+7.5-112	-7.5-108	52-110	52-110	+337	-430
BetRiversBetRivers	+7.5-114	-7.5-107	51.5-109	51.5-112	+325	-455
BetUSBetUS	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	52-110	52-110	+333	-425
BovadaBovada	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	51.5-115	51.5-105	+335	-450
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-118	-7.5-102	52.5-105	52.5-115	+320	-410
FanDuelFD	+7.5-115	-7.5-105	51.5-112	51.5-108	+320	-405
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+7.5-109	-7.5-101	52-107	52-107	+337	-430
MyBookie.agMyBookie.ag	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	52-110	52-110	+345	-439

Last prices before kickoff from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Each row is that book’s own last price, so it can differ from the closing line on this card. DraftKings’ row has a total of 52.5, while the closing line on this card (the close recorded for DraftKings) is a total of 51.5. Prices vary by state; check your book.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like SF as a 7.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 5, covered 3, and 7 went over the total.

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This game: SF won 23–17; the favorite didn’t cover, as in 7 of the 10 similar games. 40 points stayed under 51.5, as in 3 of 10.

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.4 against an average line of 7.3; 49.2 points a game (usually 47.2). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs MIA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & total	-6.5	30–27	L	O49.5
Close	LAR vs TB 2025 · Week 12 · close · similar total & rest	-7.5	34–7	W	U50.5
Close	SF vs ARI 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & situation	-7.5	23–24	L	U48.5
Close	DET vs PIT 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & rest	-7.5	24–29	L	O52.5
Close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	33–15	W	O46.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & situation	-7	26–29	L	O49.5
Close	DET vs MIN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-9.5	24–27	L	O47.5
Close	IND vs ARI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar rest & spread	-8.5	31–27	L	O46.5
Close	DET vs TB 2025 · Week 7 · close · similar rest & spread	-6.5	24–9	W	U54.5
Close	WSH vs CHI 2025 · Week 6 · close · similar situation & season form	-5.5	24–25	L	O48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH WLWLL	2-3	40%	1-1	2-2
SF WWLWW	4-1	80%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; SF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH OOOUO	4-1	80%	1-3-1
SF UOOUO	3-2	60%	5-0

Stayed under: it needed 19 in the 4th quarter and got 7. 48% of games with totals 48.5–54.5 went over.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	3-6-1 33%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
SF	8-2 80%	6-4 60%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 1 since 2023

WSH 5–9 SF SF leads · 14 games since 1999 · SF has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 31 2023	San Francisco 49ers 27 @ Washington Commanders 10	SF -14	SF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−2.4▼ 0.8#26

SF+0.9 →+3.9▲ 3.0#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW5

WSH

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

SF better ▶

#26

Defense

SF better ▶

+1.0 #3

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

+0.4 #13

64 plays #12

Pace

◀ WSH faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	WSH off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	23.0 #17	18.6 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.12 #18	4.67 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.02 #16	−0.07 #5	SF
Success rate	40% #26	43% #13	SF

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	30.8 #3	29.8 #32	SF
Yards / play	6.43 #3	5.46 #21	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	+0.04 #23	SF
Success rate	53% #1	47% #27	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

WSH scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.4 #15	6.4 #16	10.8 #17	4.8 #15	7.4 #17	12.2 #12
SF allowed	2.0 #4	5.0 #7	7.0 #2	4.0 #13	7.6 #20	11.6 #16

SF scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	4.8 #13	8.2 #9	13.0 #10	8.2 #4	9.6 #4	17.8 #2
WSH allowed	2.6 #7	8.2 #23	10.8 #16	8.0 #29	11.0 #31	19.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.