Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Washington Commanders · Division game
@
PHI 38%62% WSH
Spread
WSH -3.5
earliest PHI -2.5
Total
41.5
model 44.5
Spread edge
PHI by 1.5
no lean
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Spread
Total
Winner
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenPHI -2.5
CurrentWSH -3.5
Total46.5 → 41.5
Last update7:35 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Market
Open → current
Spread
OpenPHI -2.5
6 → WSH
NowWSH -3.5
6 pts toward Washington Commanders
Total
Open46.5
▼ 5
Now41.5
Down 5 since the open
Line movement
Opening and current line · tap a dot
Opened PHI -2.5 · now WSH -3.5 · moved 6 toward WSHmodel WSH -2
model WSH -2
Opened 46.5 · now 41.5 · moved 5 downmodel 44.5
model 44.5
Openline modelNow
Line watch · Already at the modelModel vs the opening line: WSH by 4.4 pts (open +2.5, now -3.5). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.
Line context
Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ
Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ
DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET
SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed
OpenPHI -2.5
CurrentWSH -3.5
Total46.5 → 41.5
Last update7:35 PM ET
Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.
Books
6 sportsbooks · current prices
| Book | Spread | Total | Moneyline | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 PHI |  WSH | Over | Under | PHI | WSH | |
| BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag | +4-110 | -4-110 | 41-110 | 41-110 | — | — |
| BetRiversBetRivers | +4-110 | -4-110 | 40.5-107 | 40.5-114 | +170 | -210 |
| BetUSBetUS | +4-110 | -4-110 | 41-110 | 41-110 | — | — |
| DraftKingsDK | +3.5-110 | -3.5-110 | 41.5-110 | 41.5-110 | +150 | -180 |
| FanDuelFD | +3.5-102 | -3.5-120 | 40.5-105 | 40.5-115 | +168 | -200 |
| LowVig.agLowVig.ag | +4-105 | -4-105 | 41-107 | 41-107 | — | — |
Public betting
Share of bets and of money
Total
Over 41.5Under 41.5
Bets80%
20%
Money71%
29%
Winner
PHIWSHBets11%
89%
Money21%
79%
Money is 10 pts ahead of bets on PHI
Similar games
The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out
In the 10 games most like WSH as a 3.5-point home favorite against PHI, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.
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Favorite won
7 of 1070%
Normal range · usually 64%
Favorite covered
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 52%
Went over
6 of 1060%
Normal range · usually 49%
All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 6.8 against an average line of 3.5; 43.8 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›
All 10 games
| Match | Game | Line | Final | Covered | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Close |
2025 · Week 15 · close · similar season form & rest |
-3 | 21–29 | L | O45.5 |
| Close |
2024 · Week 18 · close · similar spread & total |
-4.5 | 47–24 | W | O42.5 |
| Loose |
2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar season form & spread |
-2.5 | 32–20 | W | O39.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar team ratings & season form |
-3.5 | 26–0 | W | U38 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form |
-4 | 23–30 | L | O40.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 16 · loose |
-4.5 | 27–16 | W | O42 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose · similar season form & situation |
-3.5 | 16–9 | W | U39 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar season form & situation |
-2.5 | 17–20 | L | U40 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 17 · loose |
-3.5 | 23–20 | L | O42.5 |
| Loose |
2023 · Week 6 · loose · similar team ratings |
-3.5 | 21–17 | W | U40.5 |
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LVHistory, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found
Model view
Power-rating model, before kickoff
Model Favorite
Washington Commanders 62%
Projected PHI 21 – WSH 24 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest
Model line
WSH -2
Market WSH -3.5
Against the spread
No lean
Below the 2.5-point lean threshold.
Total
No lean
Model 44.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.
How the model gets there (points from WSH’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)
SpreadWSH rating edge−0.1+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+0.2=Model marginWSH by 1.9
TotalScoring ratings44.4=Model total44.4
Signals
The data signal, and 3 trends and market moves behind it
Slight Washington Commanders ATS trend
Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
Slight Under trend
Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.
None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.
Market moved toward Washington Commanders
6 pts (PHI -2.5 → WSH -3.5). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)
Total moved down 5
46.5 → 41.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)
Washington Commanders QB Marcus Mariota doubtful
The model takes points off a team whose usual starter is out or doubtful; the market line may already reflect it.
Totals
Over/under before kickoff
In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.
When games like this go over ›Last 10 games
Before kickoff, this and last season
| Straight up | Spread | Over / under | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 4-6 40% | 4-6 40% | 5-5 50% |
| WSH | 3-6-1 33% | 6-4 60% | 8-2 80% |
Recent meetings
Last 5 since 2023
PHI 35–21 WSH
PHI leads · 56 games since 1999 · PHI has won the last meeting
All-time series from nflverse.
| Date | Result | Line | ATS |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 13 2026 | Washington Commanders 22 @ Philadelphia Eagles 24 | PHI -6 | WSH W |
| Jan 4 2025 | Washington Commanders 24 @ Philadelphia Eagles 17 | PHI -3 | WSH W |
| Dec 20 2025 | Philadelphia Eagles 29 @ Washington Commanders 18 | PHI -7 | PHI W |
| Jan 26 2024 | Washington Commanders 23 @ Philadelphia Eagles 55 | PHI -6.5 | PHI W |
| Dec 22 2024 | Philadelphia Eagles 33 @ Washington Commanders 36 | PHI -4.5 | WSH W |
Matchup stats
Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
Power rating this season
pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot
PHI+1.1 →−2.3▼ 3.4#24
WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26
Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7
PHILonger bar = better
WSH#30
Offense
WSH better ▶#19
#21
Defense
◀ PHI better#26
−0.3 #20
Turnovers
WSH better ▶+1.0 #3
58 plays #28
Pace
WSH faster ▶64 plays #11
Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense
When PHI has the ball| PHI off | WSH def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 17.7 #29 | 28.7 #29 | Even |
| Yards / play | 4.38 #32 | 5.58 #22 | WSH |
| EPA / play | −0.13 #30 | +0.07 #24 | WSH |
| Success rate | 36% #30 | 48% #29 | Even |
When WSH has the ball| WSH off | PHI def | Edge | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Points / game | 22.0 #21 | 22.8 #16 | PHI |
| Yards / play | 5.12 #18 | 5.38 #17 | Even |
| EPA / play | −0.01 #16 | +0.08 #27 | WSH |
| Success rate | 41% #21 | 45% #25 | Even |
Points by quarter and half
Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams
PHI scoring against the WSH defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI scored | 0.5 #32 | 12.2 #2 | 12.7 #11 | 1.0 #32 | 4.0 #30 | 5.0 #32 |
| WSH allowed | 4.3 #14 | 8.0 #22 | 12.3 #21 | 7.2 #26 | 9.2 #28 | 16.3 #31 |
WSH scoring against the PHI defense
| Q1 | Q2 | 1H | Q3 | Q4 | 2H | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH scored | 4.2 #17 | 5.3 #22 | 9.5 #22 | 5.2 #13 | 7.3 #17 | 12.5 #10 |
| PHI allowed | 5.0 #17 | 4.3 #6 | 9.3 #9 | 3.8 #9 | 9.7 #31 | 13.5 #26 |
Game conditions
Before kickoff
Home field
WSH +1.8home-field points in the model
Weather
57° · 2 mph
gusts 17 mph · kickoff forecast
Rest
PHI6d
WSH13d bye
WSH +7 days
Tempo
Average 122 plays
slowavg 125fast
Injury report
ESPN, refreshed every 20 minutes
Philadelphia Eagles| RB | Saquon Barkley | Hamstring | Questionable |
| WR | Dontayvion Wicks | Ankle | Questionable |
| WR | DeVonta Smith | Hamstring | Questionable |
| TE | Dallas Goedert | Knee | Questionable |
| OT | Fred Johnson | Illness | Questionable |
Washington Commanders| WR | Terry McLaurin | Knee | Out |
| QB | Marcus Mariota | Knee - MCL | Doubtful |
| DE | Charles Omenihu | Groin | Questionable |
| DT | Javon Kinlaw | Knee | Questionable |
News & sentiment
ESPN and Google News headlines
Recent ESPN and Google News headlines for both teams, injury and suspension mentions, and a keyword-based read on the tone of coverage.
Schedules, links & other games
Previous and next games, standings, ESPN, and the rest of the week
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GB
BAL @ 
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TEN @ 
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MIN @ 
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CLE @ 
ATL @ 
TB
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