Chargers @ Rams: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 4:05 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Los Angeles Rams

Kickoff forecast69°F10 mphgusts 18DryWeather watch ›

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

Sun 4:05 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

LAC 25%

75% LAR

Spread

LAR -7

open LAR -3.5

Total

45.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

LAR by 2.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenLAR -3.5

CurrentLAR -7

Total48.5 → 45.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenLAR -3.5

3.5 → LAR

NowLAR -7

3.5 pts toward Los Angeles Rams

Total

Open48.5

▼ 3

Now45.5

Down 3 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened LAR -3.5 · now LAR -7 · moved 3.5 toward LARmodel LAR -9.5

model LAR -9.5

Openline modelNow

↗ Line toward model

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: LAR by 6.2 pts (open -3.5, now -7). In 2025–2026, with a 4+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 67.6% of the 37 games where the line moved (44 at that gap), but those sides covered 27.3% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 50% (117 games)ⓘ

Moved onto 7Lines that moved 3.5+ pts toward the favorite: that team covered 54% (70 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 7:35 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenLAR -3.5

CurrentLAR -7

Total48.5 → 45.5

Last update7:35 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	LAC	LAR	Over	Under	LAC	LAR
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+7-110	-7-110	46-110	46-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+7.5-114	-7.5-107	45.5-108	45.5-113	+305	-400
BetUSBetUS	+7-110	-7-110	46-110	46-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+7-115	-7-105	45.5-110	45.5-110	+245	-305
FanDuelFD	+7-110	-7-110	45.5-105	45.5-115	+270	-335
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+7-105	-7-105	46-107	46-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 7:35 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

LAC

LAR

Bets4% 96%

Money16% 84%

Money is 12 pts ahead of bets on LAC

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 7-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 6, covered 2, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

2 of 922%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 2.4 against an average line of 7.5; 47.2 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 7 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	SEA vs LAC 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & total	-7	30–23	P	O43.5
Close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & situation	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Loose	IND vs TEN 2026 · Week 6 · loose · similar spread & season form	-6.5	20–26	L	O43.5
Loose	MIA vs LV 2024 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-8.5	34–19	W	O43.5
Loose	CIN vs CLE 2024 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & season form	-10.5	24–6	W	U46.5
Loose	SEA vs NYG 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	20–29	L	O41.5
Loose	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar situation	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Loose	PHI vs ATL 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar situation & total	-5.5	21–22	L	U46.5
Loose	TB vs NYJ 2025 · Week 3 · loose · similar team ratings & situation	-6.5	29–27	L	O42.5
Loose	DAL vs TB 2026 · Week 5 · loose	-8.5	16–24	L	U49.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Los Angeles Rams 75%

Projected LAC 18 – LAR 25 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

LAR -9.5

Market LAR -7

Against the spread

Lean LAR -7

2.7-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)

Total

No lean

Model 42.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from LAR’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadLAR rating edge+5.4+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+2.5=Model marginLAR by 9.7

TotalScoring ratings44.4+Wind 10 mph−2.0=Model total42.4

Signals

The data signal, and 6 trends and market moves behind it

Slight Los Angeles Rams ATS trend

Slight-or-stronger ATS leans went 294-309 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

Slight Under trend

Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Chargers ATS struggles (0-5-1)

Los Angeles Chargers have covered only 0% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Chargers 0-3-1 ATS as an underdog

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Los Angeles Rams ATS struggles (1-5)

Los Angeles Rams have covered only 17% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Rams 1-4 ATS as a favorite

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Market moved toward Los Angeles Rams

3.5 pts (LAR -3.5 → LAR -7). · Backtest 2024–26: 200-205 (49%)

Total moved down 3

48.5 → 45.5. · Backtest 2024–26: 120-135 (47%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-2-1	0-3-1
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs HOU	L16–20LU
Nov 16	@ BAL	L23–30LO
Nov 22	vs NYJ	W27–6WU

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ WSH	W28–20WU
Nov 15	@ ARI	L16–18LU
Nov 25	vs GB	L19–24LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

LAC 3–4 LAR LAR leads · 7 games since 2000 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

LAC

Longer bar = better

LAR

#30

Offense

LAR better ▶

#12

#17

Defense

LAR better ▶

#13

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

LAR better ▶

−0.5 #25

62 plays #18

Pace

LAR faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	LAC off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	23.0 #18	LAR
Yards / play	4.64 #26	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	36% #31	44% #18	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Advantage: LAR offense

	LAR off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	25.2 #22	Even
Yards / play	5.87 #8	5.40 #19	LAR
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.04 #11	Even
Success rate	47% #7	44% #17	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

LAR scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.

Game conditions

Before kickoff

Home field

LAR +1.8

home-field points in the model

Weather

69° · 10 mph

Wind trims 2.0 pts off the total

Rest

LAC14d bye

LAR7d

LAC +7 days

Tempo

Fast 130 plays

slowavg 125fast

Injury report

ESPN, refreshed every 20 minutes

Los Angeles Chargers

WR	Brenen Thompson	Quadriceps	Questionable
WR	Tre' Harris	Hamstring	Questionable
CB	Rodney Shelley	Hamstring	Questionable
CB	Donte Jackson	Hamstring	Questionable
S	Derwin James Jr.	Hamstring	Questionable