Colts @ Jaguars: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Jacksonville Jaguars · Division game

Kickoff forecast81°F10 mphDryWeather watch ›

Indianapolis Colts

2-4 · Power #21

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-2 · Power #6

projected

IND 25%

75% JAX

Spread

JAX -7.5

open JAX -4.5

Total

47.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenJAX -4.5

CurrentJAX -7.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenJAX -4.5

3 → JAX

NowJAX -7.5

3 pts toward Jacksonville Jaguars

Total

Open49.5

▼ 2

Now47.5

Down 2 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened JAX -4.5 · now JAX -7.5 · moved 3 toward JAXmodel JAX -7.5 matches the line

model JAX -7.5 = line ✓

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: JAX by 3.2 pts (open -4.5, now -7.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 63.8% of the 69 games where the line moved (86 at that gap), but those sides covered 39.5% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 6.5–8.5 since 2023: won 71%, covered 49% (125 games)ⓘ

Crossed 7The team the line moved toward covered 31% (55 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenJAX -4.5

CurrentJAX -7.5

Total49.5 → 47.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	IND	JAX	Over	Under	IND	JAX
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+7+100	-7-120	48.5-110	48.5-110	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+7.5-115	-7.5-106	47-114	47-107	+320	-420
BetUSBetUS	+7+100	-7-120	48.5-110	48.5-110	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+7.5-110	-7.5-110	47.5-110	47.5-110	+295	-375
FanDuelFD	+7.5-118	-7.5-104	47.5-110	47.5-110	+310	-390
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+7+105	-7-116	48.5-107	48.5-107	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:34 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

IND

JAX

Bets4% 96%

Money9% 91%

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like JAX as a 7.5-point home favorite against IND, the favorite won 8, covered 3, and 8 went over the total.

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Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 72%

Favorite covered

3 of 933%

Normal range · usually 45%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

Only 10 close matches, too few to read much into. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 7.4; 49.2 points a game (usually 47). Of the 8 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	KC vs CIN 2024 · Week 2 · very close · similar spread & total	-6.5	26–25	L	O47.5
Close	IND vs LV 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-7.5	40–6	W	U46.5
Close	PHI vs JAX 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7.5	28–23	L	O46.5
Close	BUF vs NE 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar season form & situation	-7	26–29	L	O49.5
Close	SEA vs LAC 2026 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & team ratings	-7	30–23	P	O43.5
Close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · close · similar season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Close	GB vs ARI 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar season form & situation	-6.5	34–13	W	O46.5
Close	SF vs WSH 2026 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & season form	-7.5	23–17	L	U51.5
Close	DET vs MIN 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar season form	-9.5	24–27	L	O47.5
Close	NE vs NYG 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar team ratings & season form	-7	33–15	W	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
IND WWWLL	3-3	50%	1-1	2-2
JAX LWWLL	3-3	50%	2-0	2-2

Venue/role: IND away, as underdog; JAX home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
IND OUUOO	4-2	67%	2-4
JAX UUUUO	2-4	33%	4-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
IND	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
JAX	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Indianapolis Colts

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	vs DAL	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs MIA	W33–8WU
Nov 19	@ HOU	W19–17WU

Jacksonville Jaguars

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 5	@ BAL	L7–23LU
Nov 15	@ TEN	W41–7WO
Nov 22	@ NYG	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

IND 27–22 JAX IND leads · 49 games since 2000 · JAX has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 28 2025	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 17	JAX -4.5	JAX W
Dec 7 2025	Indianapolis Colts 19 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 36	IND -2.5	JAX W
Jan 5 2024	Jacksonville Jaguars 23 @ Indianapolis Colts 26	IND -3.5	JAX W
Oct 6 2024	Indianapolis Colts 34 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	IND W
Oct 15 2023	Indianapolis Colts 20 @ Jacksonville Jaguars 37	JAX -3.5	JAX W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

IND+0.7 →−1.8▼ 2.5#21

JAX+1.4 →+3.0▲ 1.6#6

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

IND

Longer bar = better

JAX

#20

Offense

JAX better ▶

#25

Defense

JAX better ▶

#14

−1.3 #32

Turnovers

JAX better ▶

+0.8 #4

67 plays #6

Pace

◀ IND faster

60 plays #23

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When IND has the ball

Advantage: JAX defense

	IND off	JAX def	Edge
Points / game	24.0 #14	17.3 #3	JAX
Yards / play	4.67 #24	5.82 #26	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #22	−0.04 #12	JAX
Success rate	42% #19	43% #13	JAX

When JAX has the ball

Advantage: JAX offense

	JAX off	IND def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #9	27.3 #27	JAX
Yards / play	5.78 #9	5.97 #28	JAX
EPA / play	+0.16 #4	+0.07 #26	JAX
Success rate	48% #6	44% #19	JAX

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

IND scoring against the JAX defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
IND scored	3.7 #22	10.0 #4	13.7 #8	3.2 #26	6.7 #19	9.8 #27
JAX allowed	1.2 #1	5.5 #9	6.7 #2	4.5 #15	6.2 #12	10.7 #10

JAX scoring against the IND defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
JAX scored	4.0 #18	9.7 #5	13.7 #8	6.7 #8	5.3 #24	12.0 #14
IND allowed	6.2 #27	6.8 #20	13.0 #25	4.5 #15	8.8 #27	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.