Vikings @ Lions: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 8, 2026)

Sun, Nov 1, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 8 · at Detroit Lions · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

MIN 41%

59% DET

Spread

DET -2.5

open DET -4.5

Total

46.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

MIN by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDET -4.5

CurrentDET -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

OpenDET -4.5

2 → MIN

NowDET -2.5

2 pts toward Minnesota Vikings

Total

Open47.5

▼ 1

Now46.5

Down 1 since the open

Line movement

Opening and current line · tap a dot

Opened DET -4.5 · now DET -2.5 · moved 2 toward MINmodel DET -1.5

model DET -1.5

Openline modelNow

Line watch · Moving toward modelModel vs the opening line: MIN by 3.1 pts (open +4.5, now +2.5). In 2025–2026, with a 3+ pt gap, lines moved toward the ratings in 63.8% of the 69 games where the line moved (86 at that gap), but those sides covered 39.5% at the opener, below the 52.4% break-even: it predicts the line, not the result.

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

Crossed 3The team the line moved toward covered 43% (60 games since 2024)ⓘ

DraftKings via ESPNupdated 6:34 PM ET

SourceDraftKings via ESPN odds feed

OpenDET -4.5

CurrentDET -2.5

Total47.5 → 46.5

Last update6:34 PM ET

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Books

6 sportsbooks · current prices

SpreadTotalMoneyline

Book	Spread		Total		Moneyline
Book	MIN	DET	Over	Under	MIN	DET
BetOnline.agBetOnline.ag	+3-110	-3-110	47-105	47-115	—	—
BetRiversBetRivers	+3-107	-3-114	47-114	47-107	+140	-175
BetUSBetUS	+3-110	-3-110	47-105	47-115	—	—
DraftKingsDK	+2.5+100	-2.5-120	46.5-115	46.5-105	+130	-155
FanDuelFD	+3-108	-3-112	47.5-105	47.5-115	+134	-158
LowVig.agLowVig.ag	+3-105	-3-105	47-102	47-113	—	—

Prices from ESPN’s odds feed and The Odds API, updated 6:34 PM ET. Highlighted = best number in that column (the line first, then the price). Prices vary by state; check your book.

Public betting

Share of bets and of money

Winner

MIN

DET

Bets30% 70%

Money54% 46%

Money is 24 pts ahead of bets on MIN

Sports Betting Dime, an average of sportsbooks. Read Thu, Oct 22, 4:27 AM ET. ⓘ

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DET as a 2.5-point home favorite against MIN, the favorite won 4, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0.2 against an average line of 3.2; 48.2 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	PHI vs DEN 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	17–21	L	U44.5
Close	DET vs SEA 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total & season form	-4.5	42–29	W	O47.5
Close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	MIN vs ARI 2024 · Week 13 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	23–22	L	U45.5
Close	SF vs JAX 2025 · Week 4 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	21–26	L	O46.5
Close	BUF vs PHI 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar total & rest	-3.5	12–13	L	U45.5
Close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & situation	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar season form & total	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Close	LAC vs DEN 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar season form	-2.5	34–27	W	O41.5
Close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar rest & total	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	3-0	2-0
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	0-1-1	1-2-1

Venue/role: MIN away, as underdog; DET home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 9	vs BUF	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	@ GB	W39–22WO
Nov 22	@ SF	W23–17WU

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 8	@ MIA	No meeting since 2023
Nov 15	vs NE	No meeting since 2023
Nov 22	vs TB	W24–9WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

MIN 36–18 DET MIN leads · 54 games since 1999 · MIN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 25 2025	Detroit Lions 10 @ Minnesota Vikings 23	DET -7.5	MIN W
Nov 2 2025	Minnesota Vikings 27 @ Detroit Lions 24	DET -9.5	MIN W
Jan 5 2024	Minnesota Vikings 9 @ Detroit Lions 31	DET -2.5	DET W
Oct 20 2024	Detroit Lions 31 @ Minnesota Vikings 29	MIN -1.5	DET W
Jan 7 2023	Minnesota Vikings 20 @ Detroit Lions 30	DET -3.5	DET W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW7

MIN

Longer bar = better

DET

#27

Offense

DET better ▶

Defense

◀ MIN better

#28

+1.2 #1

Turnovers

◀ MIN better

+0.8 #5

61 plays #20

Pace

DET faster ▶

66 plays #7

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	29.6 #30	MIN
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.63 #24	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.15 #31	Even
Success rate	36% #32	48% #28	Even

When DET has the ball

Even matchup

	DET off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	12.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	5.93 #6	4.62 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.21 #1	Even
Success rate	49% #3	33% #1	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

MIN scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

DET scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.