Bills @ Vikings: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Mon, Nov 9, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 9 · at Minnesota Vikings

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

Mon 8:15 PM ET

Minnesota Vikings

5-0 · Power #8

projected

BUF 60%

40% MIN

Spread

BUF -3

Total

48.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

MIN by 2.5

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -3

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -3

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Road favorites of 2–4 since 2023: won 64%, covered 54% (152 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -3

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 3-point road favorite at MIN, the favorite won 8, covered 7, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 62%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 51%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 3.6 against an average line of 2.9; 51.2 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BAL @ PIT 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar season form & spread	-3.5	16–18	L	U49.5
Very close	BAL @ KC 2025 · Week 4 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–37	L	O49.5
Very close	DET @ MIN 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & total	-2.5	30–24	W	O48
Very close	BUF @ NE 2025 · Week 15 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2.5	35–31	W	O49.5
Very close	BAL @ LAC 2024 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	30–23	W	O50.5
Very close	CIN @ PIT 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & spread	-2.5	19–17	L	U48.5
Close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	LAC @ LV 2025 · Week 2 · close · similar spread & rest	-3.5	20–9	W	U46.5
Close	DET @ NO 2023 · Week 13 · close · similar total & situation	-4	33–28	W	O48
Close	GB @ SEA 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar total & spread	-2.5	30–13	W	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2
MIN WWWLW	4-1	80%	1-1	2-0

Venue/role: BUF away, as favorite; MIN home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1
MIN OUUUU	1-4	20%	5-0

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%
MIN	10-0 100%	8-2 80%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Buffalo Bills

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ NYJ	W35–8WO
Nov 22	vs MIA	L13–30LU
Nov 26	vs KC	W28–21WU

Minnesota Vikings

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ GB	W39–22WO
Nov 22	@ SF	W23–17WU
Nov 29	vs ATL	L6–22LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

BUF 4–3 MIN BUF leads · 7 games since 2000 · MIN has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

MIN+0.1 →+2.7▲ 2.6#8

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

BUF

Longer bar = better

MIN

Offense

◀ BUF better

#27

#28

Defense

MIN better ▶

−0.5 #26

Turnovers

MIN better ▶

+1.2 #1

60 plays #25

Pace

MIN faster ▶

61 plays #20

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When BUF has the ball

Even matchup

	BUF off	MIN def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	12.8 #1	Even
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.62 #2	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.21 #1	Even
Success rate	49% #4	33% #1	Even

When MIN has the ball

Even matchup

	MIN off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	21.8 #22	28.5 #28	MIN
Yards / play	4.61 #27	5.64 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.10 #27	+0.13 #30	Even
Success rate	36% #32	47% #27	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

BUF scoring against the MIN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
MIN allowed	3.8 #13	4.0 #4	7.8 #3	4.4 #14	0.6 #1	5.0 #1

MIN scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIN scored	4.4 #15	5.2 #24	9.6 #21	3.4 #23	8.8 #6	12.2 #13
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.