Packers @ Patriots: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 9, 2026)

Sun, Nov 8, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 9 · at New England Patriots

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

GB 44%

56% NE

Spread

NE -1.5

Total

46.5

model 44

Spread edge

NE by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowNE -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now46.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentNE -1.5

Total46.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like NE as a 1.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 2.1; 42.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	GB vs PHI 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	7–10	L	U44.5
Very close	DEN vs ATL 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	38–6	W	U44.5
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar rest & season form	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Very close	SF vs KC 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar situation & total	-2.5	18–28	L	U47.5
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU vs MIA 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & season form	-2.5	20–12	W	U46.5
Very close	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	2-1	2-1

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; NE home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3

In 454 games with totals 43.5–49.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	vs MIN	L22–39LO
Nov 25	@ LAR	W24–19WU
Dec 6	@ NO	W34–0WU

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Nov 15	@ DET	No meeting since 2023
Nov 29	@ LAC	W16–3WU
Dec 6	vs BUF	W29–26WO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

GB 3–3 NE Series tied · 6 games since 2002 · GB has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW8

Longer bar = better

#19

Offense

NE better ▶

#11

#10

Defense

◀ GB better

#16

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−1.0 #30

61 plays #22

Pace

NE faster ▶

62 plays #16

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Even matchup

	GB off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.36 #16	Even
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.02 #20	GB
Success rate	40% #25	44% #20	NE

When NE has the ball

Even matchup

	NE off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	20.8 #10	GB
Yards / play	6.00 #5	4.64 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.06 #7	Even
Success rate	45% #12	44% #21	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

NE scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.