Patriots @ Chargers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Sun, Nov 29, 2026, 8:20 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Chargers

New England Patriots

4-3 · Power #7

projected

Sun 8:20 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

NE 48%

52% LAC

Spread

LAC -1.5

Total

45.5

model 42.5

Spread edge

NE by 9

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 1.5-point home favorite against NE, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 11.5 against an average line of 1.9; 39.1 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Close	DEN vs GB 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar situation & season form	-2.5	19–17	L	U43.5
Close	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Close	MIN vs WSH 2025 · Week 14 · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	31–0	W	U43.5
Close	LV vs GB 2023 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & total	-1	17–13	W	U43.5
Close	CIN vs SEA 2023 · Week 6 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–13	W	U45.5
Loose	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5
Loose	ARI vs LAR 2024 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	41–10	W	O47.5
Loose	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Loose	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	29–10	W	U44

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NE LWWLL	3-3-1	50%	1-2-1	1-2-1
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: NE away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NE UOOOO	4-3	57%	4-3
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NE	6-4 60%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New England Patriots

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	vs BUF	W29–26WO
Dec 10	vs MIN	No meeting since 2023
Dec 21	@ KC	L17–27PO

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ TB	L17–40LO
Dec 13	@ LV	L14–26LU
Dec 17	vs SF	No meeting since 2023

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

NE 12–5 LAC NE leads · 17 games since 2001 · NE has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 11 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 3 @ New England Patriots 16	NE -3.5	NE W
Dec 28 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 40 @ New England Patriots 7	LAC -5.5	LAC W
Dec 3 2023	Los Angeles Chargers 6 @ New England Patriots 0	LAC -4.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NE+1.8 →+2.7▲ 0.9#7

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

LAC

#11

Offense

◀ NE better

#30

#16

Defense

Even

#17

−1.0 #30

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #29

62 plays #16

Pace

Even

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NE has the ball

Advantage: NE offense

	NE off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	22.9 #17	25.2 #22	NE
Yards / play	6.00 #5	5.40 #19	NE
EPA / play	+0.06 #10	−0.04 #11	Even
Success rate	45% #12	44% #17	NE

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: NE defense

	LAC off	NE def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	20.4 #9	NE
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.36 #16	NE
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	+0.02 #20	NE
Success rate	36% #31	44% #20	NE

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NE scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NE scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #13	12.3 #15	4.9 #16	5.7 #23	10.6 #23
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

LAC scoring against the NE defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
NE allowed	2.9 #9	6.3 #15	9.1 #7	5.3 #21	6.0 #9	11.3 #12

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.