Packers @ Rams: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 12, 2026)

Wed, Nov 25, 2026, 8:00 PM ESTWeek 12 · at Los Angeles Rams

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

Wed 8:00 PM ET

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

GB 35%

65% LAR

Spread

LAR -4.5

Total

48.5

model 46

Spread edge

GB by 1.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -4.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -4.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now48.5

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 65%, covered 49% (153 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -4.5

Total48.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 4.5-point home favorite against GB, the favorite won 8, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 66%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 50%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 50%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.8 against an average line of 3.8; 53.6 points a game (usually 45.1). Of the 7 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs SF 2025 · Week 6 · very close · similar team ratings & situation	-3.5	30–19	W	O46.5
Very close	DET vs MIN 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	30–20	W	O47.5
Very close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar situation & total	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs PIT 2025 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3.5	25–10	W	U45.5
Very close	SF vs CHI 2025 · Week 17 · very close · similar spread & situation	-4.5	42–38	L	O51.5
Very close	HOU vs IND 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & season form	-4.5	23–20	L	U45.5
Very close	CIN vs DEN 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	30–24	W	O50.5
Very close	WSH vs ATL 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & team ratings	-3.5	30–24	W	O46.5
Very close	CIN vs PIT 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	38–44	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	1-2	2-1
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	1-2	1-4

Venue/role: GB away, as underdog; LAR home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4

In 334 games with totals 45.5–51.5, 51% went over; 2% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 23% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Green Bay Packers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 6	@ NO	W34–0WU
Dec 13	vs BUF	No meeting since 2023
Dec 20	vs MIA	W30–17WU

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 3	vs KC	No meeting since 2023
Dec 13	@ SF	L7–27LU
Dec 20	vs DAL	L20–43LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

GB 11–4 LAR GB leads · 15 games since 2001 · GB has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 6 2024	Green Bay Packers 24 @ Los Angeles Rams 19	GB -2.5	GB W
Nov 5 2023	Los Angeles Rams 3 @ Green Bay Packers 20	GB -3	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW11

Longer bar = better

LAR

#19

Offense

LAR better ▶

#12

#10

Defense

Even

#13

+0.7 #6

Turnovers

◀ GB better

−0.5 #25

61 plays #22

Pace

LAR faster ▶

68 plays #3

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When GB has the ball

Advantage: LAR defense

	GB off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	23.0 #18	LAR
Yards / play	5.43 #14	4.85 #7	LAR
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	−0.04 #10	LAR
Success rate	40% #25	44% #18	LAR

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	20.8 #10	GB
Yards / play	5.87 #8	4.64 #3	GB
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.06 #7	GB
Success rate	47% #7	44% #21	LAR

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

GB scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

LAR scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.