Rams @ 49ers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 14, 2026)

Sun, Dec 13, 2026, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 14 · at San Francisco 49ers · Division game

Los Angeles Rams

2-4 · Power #5

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

LAR 54%

46% SF

Spread

LAR -1.5

Total

49.5

model 48

Spread edge

SF by 4.5

lean · context

Pick this game

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAR -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAR -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAR as a 1.5-point road favorite at SF, the favorite won 6, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.6 against an average line of 1.7; 51.8 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	BUF @ NE 2025 · Week 15 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	35–31	W	O49.5
Close	BUF @ MIA 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	21–14	W	U48
Close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar situation & spread	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5
Close	DET @ ARI 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & total	-2.5	20–13	W	U51.5
Close	BAL @ BUF 2024 · Postseason · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	25–27	L	O51.5
Close	HOU @ MIN 2024 · Week 3 · close · similar spread	-2	7–34	L	U46.5
Close	GB @ MIN 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar total & situation	-0.5	25–27	L	O48.5
Close	DET @ LAC 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	41–38	W	O48
Close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar spread & total	-1	24–21	W	U48
Close	GB @ CHI 2025 · Postseason · close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	27–31	L	O46.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAR WLLLL	1-5	17%	0-2	1-4
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	2-2	2-0

Venue/role: LAR away, as favorite; SF home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAR UOOOU	3-3	50%	2-4
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAR	5-5 50%	2-8 20%	6-4 60%
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Rams

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 20	vs DAL	L20–43LO
Dec 25	@ SEA	L27–31LO
Jan 3	@ TB	W34–7WU

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 17	@ LAC	No meeting since 2023
Dec 27	@ KC	L18–28LU
Jan 3	vs PHI	W23–19WU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAR 24–31 SF (1 tied) SF leads · 56 games since 1999 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 10 2026	San Francisco 49ers 27 @ Los Angeles Rams 7	LAR -3.5	SF W
Nov 9 2025	Los Angeles Rams 42 @ San Francisco 49ers 26	LAR -6.5	LAR W
Oct 2 2025	San Francisco 49ers 26 @ Los Angeles Rams 23	LAR -8.5	SF W
Dec 12 2024	Los Angeles Rams 12 @ San Francisco 49ers 6	SF -2.5	LAR W
Sep 22 2024	San Francisco 49ers 24 @ Los Angeles Rams 27	SF -6.5	LAR W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAR+3.0 →+3.1▲ 0.1#5

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW13

LAR

Longer bar = better

#12

Offense

SF better ▶

#13

Defense

SF better ▶

−0.5 #25

Turnovers

SF better ▶

+0.2 #16

68 plays #3

Pace

◀ LAR faster

57 plays #29

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAR has the ball

Even matchup

	LAR off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	22.5 #20	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	5.87 #8	4.75 #4	Even
EPA / play	+0.04 #12	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	47% #7	43% #16	LAR

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LAR def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	23.0 #18	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	4.85 #7	Even
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.04 #10	SF
Success rate	53% #1	44% #18	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAR scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAR scored	3.3 #23	7.2 #14	10.5 #17	2.3 #30	9.7 #3	12.0 #14
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

SF scoring against the LAR defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
LAR allowed	2.5 #6	6.7 #17	9.2 #8	5.8 #24	7.5 #19	13.3 #23

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.