49ers @ Chargers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Thu, Dec 17, 2026, 8:15 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Los Angeles Chargers

San Francisco 49ers

6-0 · Power #3

projected

Thu 8:15 PM ET

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

SF 41%

59% LAC

Spread

LAC -3.5

Total

47.5

model 44

Spread edge

SF by 11

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:31 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:31 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -3.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 2.5–4.5 since 2023: won 64%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:31 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -3.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:31 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 3.5-point home favorite against SF, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 64%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 0 against an average line of 2.5; 44.2 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Loose	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5
Loose	LAC vs IND 2025 · Week 7 · loose · similar total & situation	-2.5	24–38	L	O48.5
Loose	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & season form	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Loose	HOU vs CIN 2026 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & total	-3	6–20	L	U45.5
Loose	KC vs BUF 2024 · Postseason · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	32–29	W	O49.5
Loose	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Loose	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & total	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Loose	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar situation & spread	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Loose	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · loose	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
SF WLWWL	4-2	67%	1-0	2-0
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: SF away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
SF OOUOU	3-3	50%	6-0
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
SF	8-2 80%	5-5 50%	5-5 50%
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

San Francisco 49ers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ KC	L18–28LU
Jan 3	vs PHI	W23–19WU
Jan 10	@ ARI	W36–30LO

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ MIA	W29–27LO
Jan 3	vs KC	L6–22LU
Jan 10	@ DEN	L17–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

The series

SF 2–5 LAC LAC leads · 7 games since 2000 · SF has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

SF+0.9 →+3.7▲ 2.8#3

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ SF better

#30

Defense

◀ SF better

#17

+0.2 #16

Turnovers

◀ SF better

−0.8 #29

57 plays #29

Pace

LAC faster ▶

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When SF has the ball

Advantage: SF offense

	SF off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	29.5 #3	25.2 #22	SF
Yards / play	6.40 #3	5.40 #19	SF
EPA / play	+0.21 #1	−0.04 #11	SF
Success rate	53% #1	44% #17	SF

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: SF defense

	LAC off	SF def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	18.3 #4	SF
Yards / play	4.64 #26	4.75 #4	SF
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.06 #6	SF
Success rate	36% #31	43% #16	SF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

SF scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
SF scored	6.2 #4	8.0 #10	14.2 #7	7.3 #5	8.0 #12	15.3 #5
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

LAC scoring against the SF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
SF allowed	2.2 #4	4.2 #5	6.3 #1	4.5 #15	7.5 #19	12.0 #17

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.