Chargers @ Broncos: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Denver Broncos · Division game

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Denver Broncos

4-2 · Power #16

projected

LAC 43%

57% DEN

Spread

DEN -1.5

Total

41.5

model 40.5

Spread edge

DEN by 3.5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -1.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDEN -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now41.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDEN -1.5

Total41.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DEN as a 1.5-point home favorite against LAC, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 5 went over the total.

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Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 9.2 against an average line of 2.5; 42.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 5 overs, 2 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	TB vs CAR 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & total	-3	16–14	L	U42.5
Very close	ATL vs TB 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	25–29	L	O41.5
Very close	ATL vs WSH 2023 · Week 6 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	16–24	L	U41.5
Very close	IND vs PIT 2023 · Week 15 · very close · similar total & spread	-1	30–13	W	O41.5
Close	CHI vs CAR 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	36–10	W	O39.5
Close	NE vs WSH 2023 · Week 9 · close · similar rest & total	-2.5	17–20	L	U40
Close	NYJ vs MIA 2024 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & rest	-2.5	32–20	W	O39.5
Close	NO vs ATL 2023 · Week 18 · close · similar total & rest	-3	48–17	W	O41.5
Close	TB vs TEN 2023 · Week 10 · close · similar situation & spread	-2.5	20–6	W	U39
Close	LV vs JAX 2024 · Week 16 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	19–14	W	U41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

Model view

Power-rating model, before kickoff

Model Favorite

Denver Broncos 57%

Projected LAC 19 – DEN 21 · Model Favorite won 66.2% in backtest

Model line

DEN -5

Market DEN -1.5

Against the spread

Lean DEN -1.5

3.6-pt edge · No edge, context only · 458-426 (51.8%)

Total

No lean

Model 40.5 · Below the 5-point lean threshold.

How the model gets there (points from DEN’s side; the model line rounds to the half point)

SpreadDEN rating edge+2.5+Home field+1.8+QB EPA gap+1.3+Travel−0.5=Model marginDEN by 5.1

TotalScoring ratings40.3=Model total40.3

Signals

The data signal, and 5 trends and market moves behind it

Strong Denver Broncos ATS trend

Strong-or-stronger ATS leans went 22-16 (58%) in our 2023–25 backtest.

Slight Under trend

Slight-or-stronger total leans went 163-172 (49%) in our 2023–26 backtest.

None of these signals has beaten the market in our backtest, so this describes why the matchup is interesting — it isn’t a pick.

Los Angeles Chargers ATS struggles (0-5-1)

Los Angeles Chargers have covered only 0% of their games with a line this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 62-65 (49%)

Los Angeles Chargers 0-3-1 ATS as an underdog

Struggling to cover in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 69-56 (55%)

Denver Broncos 3-0 ATS at home

Strong against the spread at home this season. · Backtest 2023–26: 64-69 (48%)

Denver Broncos 3-0 ATS as a favorite

Covering consistently in the role they have in this game. · Backtest 2023–26: 81-81 (50%)

Both teams trending Under (10-2 combined)

Their games this season have mostly stayed under the total. · Backtest 2023–26: 18-19 (49%)

beat the market in our backtest descriptive (no proven edge) caution

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-2-1	0-3-1
DEN WWLWW	4-2	67%	3-0	3-0

Venue/role: LAC away, as underdog; DEN home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6
DEN UOUUU	1-5	17%	4-2

In 428 games with totals 38.5–44.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 25% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%
DEN	7-3 70%	7-3 70%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Chargers

No more games this season.

Denver Broncos

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LAC 23–33 DEN DEN leads · 56 games since 1999 · DEN has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 11 2026	Denver Broncos 23 @ Los Angeles Chargers 17	DEN -3	DEN W
Jan 4 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 3 @ Denver Broncos 19	DEN -15.5	DEN W
Sep 21 2025	Denver Broncos 20 @ Los Angeles Chargers 23	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Dec 19 2024	Denver Broncos 27 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	LAC -2.5	LAC W
Oct 13 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 23 @ Denver Broncos 16	LAC -2.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

DEN+1.2 →+0.3▼ 0.9#16

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

LAC

Longer bar = better

DEN

#30

Offense

Even

#28

#17

Defense

DEN better ▶

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

DEN better ▶

+0.7 #7

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ LAC faster

57 plays #30

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: DEN defense

	LAC off	DEN def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	20.8 #11	DEN
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.05 #13	DEN
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.04 #9	DEN
Success rate	36% #31	40% #4	DEN

When DEN has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	DEN off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	19.0 #26	25.2 #22	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #31	5.40 #19	LAC
EPA / play	−0.08 #25	−0.04 #11	LAC
Success rate	38% #28	44% #17	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the DEN defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
DEN allowed	2.8 #7	5.3 #8	8.2 #5	5.7 #22	7.0 #17	12.7 #18

DEN scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DEN scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	3.7 #21	8.7 #7	12.3 #12
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.