Buccaneers @ Saints: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at New Orleans Saints · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

New Orleans Saints

2-4 · Power #29

projected

TB 55%

45% NO

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

43.5

model 46

Spread edge

NO by 2.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTB -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -1.5

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 1.5-point road favorite at NO, the favorite won 5, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.2 against an average line of 1.8; 46.2 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 7 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2023 · Week 10 · very close · similar total & rest	-2	23–25	L	O43.5
Very close	MIA @ NYJ 2025 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	IND @ TEN 2023 · Week 13 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	31–28	W	O42
Very close	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & rest	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Very close	MIN @ NYG 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-2.5	16–13	W	U41.5
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	CLE @ NO 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	14–35	L	O43.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Very close	ARI @ NYG 2026 · Week 4 · very close · similar total & rest	-2.5	24–36	L	O43.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-1	0-2
NO WLLLW	3-3	50%	0-3	2-1

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; NO home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5
NO UOOUO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
NO	5-5 50%	7-3 70%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

No more games this season.

New Orleans Saints

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TB 23–28 NO NO leads · 51 games since 1999 · NO has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 7 2025	New Orleans Saints 24 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 20	TB -7.5	NO W
Oct 26 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ New Orleans Saints 3	TB -3.5	TB W
Jan 5 2024	New Orleans Saints 19 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 27	TB -14.5	NO W
Oct 13 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 51 @ New Orleans Saints 27	TB -3.5	TB W
Dec 31 2023	New Orleans Saints 23 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 13	TB -2.5	NO W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

NO−1.2 →−2.6▼ 1.4#29

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

#27

Offense

NO better ▶

#19

Defense

◀ TB better

#29

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

Even

−0.5 #23

63 plays #13

Pace

NO faster ▶

67 plays #5

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Even matchup

	TB off	NO def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	29.7 #31	TB
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.84 #27	Even
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	+0.07 #25	Even
Success rate	39% #27	49% #31	Even

When NO has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	NO off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	25.3 #11	23.0 #17	NO
Yards / play	4.80 #23	5.01 #9	TB
EPA / play	−0.05 #20	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	42% #20	41% #5	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the NO defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
NO allowed	6.8 #31	6.0 #12	12.8 #23	6.2 #25	9.5 #30	15.7 #28

NO scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NO scored	1.0 #30	6.2 #17	7.2 #26	9.5 #1	7.7 #15	17.2 #2
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.