Jets @ Bills: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Buffalo Bills · Division game

New York Jets

2-4 · Power #27

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Buffalo Bills

5-1 · Power #9

projected

NYJ 18%

82% BUF

Spread

BUF -10

Total

43.5

model 48.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -10

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowBUF -10

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now43.5

Line context

Home favorites of 8–12 since 2023: won 73%, covered 45% (56 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentBUF -10

Total43.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like BUF as a 10-point home favorite against NYJ, the favorite won 7, covered 6, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 75%

Favorite covered

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 42%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 62%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 10 against an average line of 10; 43.2 points a game (usually 47). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2024 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	40–14	W	O44.5
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar rest & spread	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	GB vs CHI 2024 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & spread	-10.5	22–24	L	O41.5
Very close	BAL vs PIT 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & total	-9.5	28–14	W	U44.5
Close	SEA vs ARI 2023 · Week 7 · close · similar total & spread	-9.5	20–10	W	U43.5
Close	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · close · similar total & season form	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Close	KC vs LV 2023 · Week 16 · close · similar situation & season form	-11	14–20	L	U40.5
Close	BUF vs TB 2023 · Week 8 · close · similar spread & total	-10	24–18	L	U43
Close	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · close · similar spread & season form	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Close	SF vs NE 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar spread & season form	-10.5	30–13	W	O41.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
NYJ WPLWW	4-1-1	80%	2-1-1	3-1-1
BUF WWLWL	4-2	67%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: NYJ away, as underdog; BUF home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
NYJ UOUUO	2-4	33%	2-4
BUF OUOOO	5-1	83%	5-1

In 495 games with totals 40.5–46.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
NYJ	2-8 20%	4-5-1 44%	5-5 50%
BUF	7-3 70%	6-4 60%	7-3 70%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

New York Jets

No more games this season.

Buffalo Bills

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

NYJ 25–29 BUF BUF leads · 54 games since 1999 · BUF has won the last 5 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	New York Jets 8 @ Buffalo Bills 35	BUF -13.5	BUF W
Sep 14 2025	Buffalo Bills 30 @ New York Jets 10	BUF -5.5	BUF W
Dec 29 2024	New York Jets 14 @ Buffalo Bills 40	BUF -10.5	BUF W
Oct 14 2024	Buffalo Bills 23 @ New York Jets 20	BUF -1.5	BUF W
Nov 19 2023	New York Jets 6 @ Buffalo Bills 32	BUF -8.5	BUF W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

NYJ−3.3 →−2.4▲ 0.9#27

BUF+2.1 →+2.7▲ 0.6#9

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

NYJ

Longer bar = better

BUF

#21

Offense

BUF better ▶

#11

Defense

◀ NYJ better

#28

+0.7 #8

Turnovers

◀ NYJ better

−0.5 #26

59 plays #27

Pace

Even

60 plays #25

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When NYJ has the ball

Advantage: NYJ offense

	NYJ off	BUF def	Edge
Points / game	18.7 #27	28.5 #28	Even
Yards / play	4.93 #22	5.64 #25	Even
EPA / play	−0.03 #19	+0.13 #30	NYJ
Success rate	44% #15	47% #27	NYJ

When BUF has the ball

Advantage: BUF offense

	BUF off	NYJ def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #1	20.3 #7	BUF
Yards / play	6.48 #2	4.80 #5	Even
EPA / play	+0.20 #2	−0.05 #8	BUF
Success rate	49% #4	44% #23	BUF

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

NYJ scoring against the BUF defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
NYJ scored	2.8 #26	3.3 #28	6.2 #28	5.5 #12	7.0 #18	12.5 #10
BUF allowed	5.2 #22	7.3 #21	12.5 #22	4.0 #13	12.0 #32	16.0 #30

BUF scoring against the NYJ defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
BUF scored	4.3 #16	13.0 #1	17.3 #2	4.3 #19	10.7 #1	15.0 #6
NYJ allowed	3.3 #10	6.0 #12	9.3 #9	2.3 #2	8.2 #22	10.5 #9

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.