Raiders @ Chiefs: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Kansas City Chiefs · Division game

Las Vegas Raiders

3-3 · Power #23

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

LV 22%

78% KC

Spread

KC -8.5

Total

40.5

model 46.5

Spread edge

Even

matches market

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Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -8.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowKC -8.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now40.5

Line context

Home favorites of 7.5–9.5 since 2023: won 70%, covered 42% (79 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentKC -8.5

Total40.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like KC as an 8.5-point home favorite against LV, the favorite won 9, covered 5, and 8 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 41%

Went over

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 60%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 12 against an average line of 8.3; 48.4 points a game (usually 47). Of the 8 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	BUF vs TEN 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & rest	-9.5	34–10	W	O41.5
Very close	KC vs DEN 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar situation & total	-7.5	16–14	L	U41.5
Very close	BUF vs NYJ 2023 · Week 11 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	32–6	W	U39
Very close	PHI vs LAR 2024 · Postseason · very close · similar rest & season form	-7.5	28–22	L	O43.5
Very close	DEN vs NYG 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar total & season form	-7.5	33–32	L	O40.5
Very close	BUF vs PIT 2023 · Postseason · very close · similar total & season form	-10	31–17	W	O39.5
Very close	LAR vs SF 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar spread & situation	-8.5	23–26	L	O43.5
Close	BAL vs LAR 2023 · Week 14 · close · similar season form & total	-7.5	37–31	L	O42
Close	LAC vs TEN 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar spread & total	-8.5	27–17	W	O40.5
Close	PHI vs DAL 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & rest	-7.5	41–7	W	O37.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LV WWWLW	5-1	83%	2-1	4-1
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	2-1	3-2

Venue/role: LV away, as underdog; KC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LV UOOOO	4-2	67%	3-3
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0

In 371 games with totals 37.5–43.5, 51% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 28% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LV	4-6 40%	7-3 70%	6-4 60%
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Las Vegas Raiders

No more games this season.

Kansas City Chiefs

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

LV 19–36 KC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 4 2026	Kansas City Chiefs 30 @ Las Vegas Raiders 27	KC -3.5	LV W
Jan 4 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 12 @ Las Vegas Raiders 14	KC -3.5	LV W
Oct 19 2025	Las Vegas Raiders 0 @ Kansas City Chiefs 31	KC -13.5	KC W
Nov 29 2024	Las Vegas Raiders 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -13.5	LV W
Oct 27 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 27 @ Las Vegas Raiders 20	KC -8.5	LV W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LV−3.0 →−2.1▲ 0.9#23

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

Longer bar = better

#13

Offense

KC better ▶

#26

Defense

KC better ▶

+0.3 #15

Turnovers

KC better ▶

+1.0 #2

64 plays #9

Pace

◀ LV faster

62 plays #19

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LV has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LV off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	27.0 #6	16.6 #2	Even
Yards / play	5.33 #16	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	+0.02 #14	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	43% #17	38% #3	KC

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LV def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	27.0 #26	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.99 #29	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	+0.03 #22	KC
Success rate	49% #2	45% #26	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LV scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LV scored	5.2 #8	7.5 #11	12.7 #11	4.3 #19	10.0 #2	14.3 #8
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

KC scoring against the LV defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
LV allowed	5.0 #17	6.7 #17	11.7 #18	8.7 #31	6.7 #15	15.3 #27

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.