Lions @ Packers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Green Bay Packers · Division game

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Green Bay Packers

4-2 · Power #14

projected

DET 42%

58% GB

Spread

GB -2.5

Total

47.5

model 50

Spread edge

DET by 2

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -2.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowGB -2.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now47.5

Line context

Home favorites of 1.5–3.5 since 2023: won 62%, covered 52% (234 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentGB -2.5

Total47.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like GB as a 2.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 4, covered 4, and 6 went over the total.

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Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 61%

Favorite covered

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 52%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 48%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 2.8 against an average line of 3; 45.6 points a game (usually 44.7). Of the 6 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	LAC vs TB 2024 · Week 15 · very close · similar spread & team ratings	-3	17–40	L	O45.5
Very close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & spread	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Very close	LAC vs WSH 2025 · Week 5 · very close · similar total & season form	-3.5	10–27	L	U48.5
Very close	CIN vs IND 2023 · Week 14 · very close · similar spread & rest	-3	34–14	W	O45
Very close	GB vs CHI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-2.5	17–9	W	U46
Very close	ARI vs SEA 2024 · Week 14 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3.5	18–30	L	O45.5
Very close	ATL vs IND 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & season form	-2.5	29–10	W	U44
Very close	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar total & rest	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	1-2	0-1
GB LLWWW	3-3	50%	2-1	1-2

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; GB home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
GB UOUUU	2-4	33%	4-2

In 394 games with totals 44.5–50.5, 54% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 21% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%
GB	4-6 40%	4-6 40%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Detroit Lions

No more games this season.

Green Bay Packers

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DET 18–36 GB GB leads · 54 games since 1999 · GB has won the last 2 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Nov 27 2025	Green Bay Packers 31 @ Detroit Lions 24	—	—
Sep 7 2025	Detroit Lions 13 @ Green Bay Packers 27	GB -1.5	GB W
Dec 5 2024	Green Bay Packers 31 @ Detroit Lions 34	DET -3.5	GB W
Nov 3 2024	Detroit Lions 24 @ Green Bay Packers 14	DET -2.5	DET W
Nov 23 2023	Green Bay Packers 29 @ Detroit Lions 22	DET -8.5	GB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

GB+0.9 →+0.6▼ 0.3#14

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

DET

Longer bar = better

Offense

◀ DET better

#19

#28

Defense

GB better ▶

#10

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

Even

+0.7 #6

66 plays #7

Pace

◀ DET faster

61 plays #22

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	GB def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	20.8 #10	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	4.64 #3	Even
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	−0.06 #7	Even
Success rate	49% #3	44% #21	DET

When GB has the ball

Advantage: GB offense

	GB off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	21.2 #23	29.6 #30	GB
Yards / play	5.43 #14	5.63 #24	GB
EPA / play	−0.01 #15	+0.15 #31	GB
Success rate	40% #25	48% #28	Even

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the GB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
GB allowed	1.7 #2	6.3 #16	8.0 #4	4.7 #18	8.2 #22	12.8 #20

GB scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
GB scored	5.0 #11	7.3 #12	12.3 #14	3.7 #21	4.7 #26	8.3 #30
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.