Lions @ Bears: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 4:25 PM ESTWeek 17 · at Chicago Bears · Division game

Detroit Lions

3-2 · Power #12

projected

Sun 4:25 PM ET

Chicago Bears

5-2 · Power #4

projected

DET 44%

56% CHI

Spread

CHI -1.5

Total

49.5

model 53.5

Spread edge

CHI by 1

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowCHI -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentCHI -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like CHI as a 1.5-point home favorite against DET, the favorite won 3, covered 3, and 6 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

3 of 1030%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 6.1 against an average line of 2.2; 49.9 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 6 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	LAC vs CIN 2024 · Week 11 · very close · similar total & season form	-0.5	34–27	W	O48.5
Very close	CHI vs PIT 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	31–28	W	O47.5
Very close	JAX vs BUF 2025 · Postseason · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	24–27	L	U51.5
Very close	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · very close · similar season form & team ratings	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Very close	CIN vs PHI 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar season form & rest	-2.5	17–37	L	O47.5
Close	PHI vs BUF 2023 · Week 12 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	37–34	W	O48.5
Close	CHI vs DET 2025 · Week 18 · close · similar situation & season form	-3	16–19	L	U51.5
Close	TB vs NE 2025 · Week 10 · close · similar total & situation	-2.5	23–28	L	O48.5
Close	DAL vs LAC 2025 · Week 16 · close · similar spread & total	-1.5	17–34	L	O50.5
Close	SF vs LAR 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & total	-2.5	6–12	L	U48.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DET LLPLW	1-3-1	25%	1-2	0-1
CHI WWLWW	5-2	71%	3-1	4-2

Venue/role: DET away, as underdog; CHI home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DET OOOOO	5-0	100%	3-2
CHI UUUOO	3-4	43%	5-2

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DET	5-5 50%	3-6-1 33%	8-2 80%
CHI	6-4 60%	7-3 70%	4-6 40%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Detroit Lions

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ GB	L24–31O

Chicago Bears

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ MIN	L3–9LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DET 26–28 CHI CHI leads · 54 games since 1999 · DET has won the last 4 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Jan 4 2025	Detroit Lions 19 @ Chicago Bears 16	CHI -3	DET W
Sep 14 2025	Chicago Bears 21 @ Detroit Lions 52	DET -6.5	DET W
Dec 22 2024	Detroit Lions 34 @ Chicago Bears 17	DET -6.5	DET W
Nov 28 2024	Chicago Bears 20 @ Detroit Lions 23	DET -10	CHI W
Dec 10 2023	Detroit Lions 13 @ Chicago Bears 28	DET -3	CHI W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DET+1.6 →+1.6–#12

CHI+0.4 →+3.2▲ 2.8#4

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

DET

Longer bar = better

CHI

Offense

◀ DET better

#11

#28

Defense

CHI better ▶

#17

+0.8 #5

Turnovers

◀ DET better

−0.1 #18

66 plays #7

Pace

CHI faster ▶

72 plays #1

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DET has the ball

Advantage: DET offense

	DET off	CHI def	Edge
Points / game	32.8 #2	20.4 #8	DET
Yards / play	5.93 #6	6.25 #32	DET
EPA / play	+0.18 #3	0.00 #19	DET
Success rate	49% #3	42% #8	DET

When CHI has the ball

Advantage: CHI offense

	CHI off	DET def	Edge
Points / game	25.7 #8	29.6 #30	CHI
Yards / play	5.42 #15	5.63 #24	CHI
EPA / play	+0.05 #11	+0.15 #31	CHI
Success rate	47% #10	48% #28	CHI

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DET scoring against the CHI defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DET scored	2.0 #29	11.4 #3	13.4 #10	9.0 #2	9.0 #4	18.0 #1
CHI allowed	2.4 #5	8.3 #23	10.7 #15	3.7 #8	6.0 #9	9.7 #6

CHI scoring against the DET defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
CHI scored	7.9 #3	7.1 #15	15.0 #3	6.4 #10	4.3 #28	10.7 #22
DET allowed	5.6 #25	5.8 #11	11.4 #17	8.8 #32	8.2 #25	17.0 #32

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.