Chiefs @ Chargers: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 17, 2026)

Sun, Jan 3, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 17 · at Los Angeles Chargers · Division game

Kansas City Chiefs

5-0 · Power #2

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

KC 48%

52% LAC

Spread

LAC -1.5

Total

45.5

model 43

Spread edge

KC by 9.5

no lean

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Home favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 57%, covered 52% (122 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 1.5-point home favorite against KC, the favorite won 9, covered 7, and 2 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

2 of 1020%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 5.6 against an average line of 2.1; 40.6 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 2 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	HOU vs BUF 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–20	W	U47.5
Close	DEN vs LAR 2026 · Week 3 · close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	30–26	W	O44.5
Loose	DEN vs MIN 2023 · Week 11 · loose · similar rest & situation	-2.5	21–20	L	U43
Loose	CIN vs BUF 2023 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread	-2.5	24–18	W	U48.5
Loose	ATL vs NO 2024 · Week 4 · loose · similar rest & spread	-2.5	26–24	L	O42.5
Loose	PHI vs DET 2025 · Week 11 · loose · similar total & rest	-2.5	16–9	W	U45.5
Loose	ARI vs CHI 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-1.5	29–9	W	U44.5
Loose	CHI vs GB 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar spread & situation	-1.5	22–16	W	U44.5
Loose	NYJ vs HOU 2024 · Week 9 · loose · similar spread & total	-2.5	21–13	W	U43.5
Loose	HOU vs TB 2025 · Week 2 · loose · similar spread & rest	-2.5	19–20	L	U42.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
KC WLWLW	3-2	60%	1-1	—
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-3	0-2

Venue/role: KC away, as underdog; LAC home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
KC UOUOU	2-3	40%	5-0
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
KC	5-5 50%	4-6 40%	2-8 20%
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Kansas City Chiefs

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	vs LV	W30–27LO

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 10	@ DEN	L17–23LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

KC 32–23 LAC KC leads · 55 games since 1999 · KC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 18 2026	Los Angeles Chargers 6 @ Kansas City Chiefs 22	KC -7.5	KC W
Dec 14 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 16 @ Kansas City Chiefs 13	KC -5.5	LAC W
Sep 5 2025	Kansas City Chiefs 21 @ Los Angeles Chargers 27	KC -3.5	LAC W
Dec 8 2024	Los Angeles Chargers 17 @ Kansas City Chiefs 19	KC -5.5	LAC W
Sep 29 2024	Kansas City Chiefs 17 @ Los Angeles Chargers 10	KC -7.5	LAC W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

KC+0.7 →+3.8▲ 3.1#2

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW16

Longer bar = better

LAC

Offense

◀ KC better

#30

Defense

◀ KC better

#17

+1.0 #2

Turnovers

◀ KC better

−0.8 #29

62 plays #19

Pace

Even

62 plays #18

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When KC has the ball

Advantage: KC offense

	KC off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	28.0 #5	25.2 #22	KC
Yards / play	6.70 #1	5.40 #19	KC
EPA / play	+0.16 #5	−0.04 #11	KC
Success rate	49% #2	44% #17	KC

When LAC has the ball

Advantage: KC defense

	LAC off	KC def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	16.6 #2	KC
Yards / play	4.64 #26	4.81 #6	KC
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	−0.10 #3	KC
Success rate	36% #31	38% #3	KC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

KC scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
KC scored	8.0 #1	6.8 #16	14.8 #4	3.4 #23	8.6 #10	12.0 #14
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

LAC scoring against the KC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
KC allowed	6.2 #29	3.8 #2	10.0 #11	1.8 #1	4.2 #4	6.0 #2

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.