Chargers @ Dolphins: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 16 · at Miami Dolphins

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 · Power #25

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Miami Dolphins

0-5 · Power #31

projected

LAC 72%

28% MIA

Spread

LAC -7

Total

45.5

model 41

Spread edge

MIA by 5

lean · context

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -7

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowLAC -7

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 6–8 since 2023: won 74%, covered 42% (53 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentLAC -7

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like LAC as a 7-point road favorite at MIA, the favorite won 6, covered 5, and 7 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

6 of 1060%

Normal range · usually 71%

Favorite covered

5 of 1050%

Normal range · usually 46%

Went over

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 57%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: favorite by 4.5 against an average line of 6.5; 49.7 points a game (usually 46.6). Of the 7 overs, 3 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	ATL @ CAR 2024 · Week 6 · close · similar total & rest	-6.5	38–20	W	O45.5
Close	ATL @ LV 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar rest & situation	-5.5	15–9	W	U43.5
Close	KC @ NYG 2025 · Week 3 · close · similar total & season form	-5.5	22–9	W	U44.5
Close	NO @ CAR 2024 · Week 9 · close · similar spread & total	-7.5	22–23	L	O43.5
Close	CIN @ TEN 2024 · Week 15 · close · similar situation & spread	-6.5	37–27	W	O46.5
Close	NYJ @ NE 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar spread	-7.5	22–25	L	O41.5
Close	IND @ NYG 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & spread	-7.5	33–45	L	O40.5
Close	TB @ MIA 2025 · Week 17 · close · similar situation & total	-5.5	17–20	L	U44.5
Close	CIN @ CAR 2024 · Week 4 · close · similar total	-5.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Loose	CIN @ MIA 2026 · Week 5 · loose · similar total & spread	-7.5	31–24	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
LAC LLPLL	0-5-1	0%	0-2-1	0-2
MIA LLLWW	2-3	40%	1-1	2-3

Venue/role: LAC away, as favorite; MIA home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
LAC UUOUU	1-5	17%	0-6
MIA UOUUO	2-3	40%	0-5

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
LAC	1-9 10%	1-8-1 11%	2-8 20%
MIA	2-8 20%	4-6 40%	5-5 50%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Los Angeles Chargers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs KC	L6–22LU
Jan 10	@ DEN	L17–23LU

Miami Dolphins

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs BUF	W30–13WU
Jan 10	@ NE	L10–38LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 2 since 2023

LAC 6–12 MIA MIA leads · 18 games since 1999 · LAC has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Oct 12 2025	Los Angeles Chargers 29 @ Miami Dolphins 27	LAC -3.5	MIA W
Sep 10 2023	Miami Dolphins 36 @ Los Angeles Chargers 34	—	—

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

LAC+0.6 →−2.3▼ 2.9#25

MIA−1.7 →−4.4▼ 2.7#31

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

LAC

Longer bar = better

MIA

#30

Offense

Even

#27

#17

Defense

◀ LAC better

#26

−0.8 #29

Turnovers

Even

−0.8 #28

62 plays #18

Pace

◀ LAC faster

55 plays #31

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When LAC has the ball

Even matchup

	LAC off	MIA def	Edge
Points / game	15.0 #30	26.4 #24	MIA
Yards / play	4.64 #26	5.50 #21	MIA
EPA / play	−0.22 #32	+0.11 #29	Even
Success rate	36% #31	49% #30	Even

When MIA has the ball

Advantage: LAC defense

	MIA off	LAC def	Edge
Points / game	14.0 #32	25.2 #22	LAC
Yards / play	5.11 #19	5.40 #19	Even
EPA / play	−0.12 #28	−0.04 #11	LAC
Success rate	38% #29	44% #17	LAC

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

LAC scoring against the MIA defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
LAC scored	3.8 #20	2.2 #31	6.0 #30	6.8 #7	2.2 #32	9.0 #28
MIA allowed	6.2 #29	8.8 #27	15.0 #32	8.2 #30	3.2 #2	11.4 #13

MIA scoring against the LAC defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
MIA scored	2.8 #28	2.4 #30	5.2 #31	4.6 #17	4.2 #29	8.8 #29
LAC allowed	5.0 #17	8.7 #26	13.7 #29	3.3 #5	8.2 #22	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.