Buccaneers @ Falcons: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 16, 2026)

Sun, Dec 27, 2026, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 16 · at Atlanta Falcons · Division game

Kickoff forecastIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1-5 · Power #19

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

TB 54%

46% ATL

Spread

TB -1.5

Total

45.5

model 45

Spread edge

ATL by 5

lean · context

Pick this game

Your picksMy picks ›

Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowTB -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now45.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentTB -1.5

Total45.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like TB as a 1.5-point road favorite at ATL, the favorite won 7, covered 7, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 58%

Favorite covered

7 of 1070%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

All three sit in the normal range for favorites of this size, so history shows no clear lean. Average result: underdog by 0.2 against an average line of 1.4; 45.4 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 1 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	NYJ @ ARI 2024 · Week 10 · very close · similar spread & season form	-1.5	6–31	L	U46.5
Very close	NO @ NYG 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & total	-1.5	34–27	W	O46.5
Very close	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & situation	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Very close	GB @ MIN 2023 · Week 17 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	33–10	W	O42.5
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar season form & spread	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Very close	ATL @ SF 2025 · Week 7 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	10–20	L	U46.5
Very close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar situation & spread	-1	24–21	W	U48
Very close	JAX @ TB 2023 · Week 16 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	12–30	L	U43
Very close	ATL @ TB 2024 · Week 8 · very close · similar rest & team ratings	-0.5	31–26	W	O47.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
TB LLLWL	1-5	17%	1-1	0-2
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	0-3	2-3

Venue/role: TB away, as favorite; ATL home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
TB OUUUO	3-3	50%	1-5
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4

In 491 games with totals 42.5–48.5, 52% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 24% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
TB	2-8 20%	1-9 10%	4-6 40%
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs LAR	L7–34LU
Jan 10	@ NO	L20–24LO

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Jan 3	vs NO	W45–24WO
Jan 10	@ CAR	L3–34LU

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

TB 25–25 ATL Series tied · 50 games since 1999 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 11 2025	Atlanta Falcons 29 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 28	TB -6	ATL W
Sep 7 2025	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 @ Atlanta Falcons 20	ATL -1.5	TB W
Oct 27 2024	Atlanta Falcons 31 @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26	ATL -0.5	ATL W
Oct 3 2024	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 30 @ Atlanta Falcons 36	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Dec 10 2023	Tampa Bay Buccaneers 29 @ Atlanta Falcons 25	ATL -1.5	TB W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

TB−0.2 →−1.2▼ 1.0#19

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW15

Longer bar = better

ATL

#27

Offense

ATL better ▶

#15

Defense

◀ TB better

#15

−0.5 #22

Turnovers

◀ TB better

−1.2 #31

63 plays #13

Pace

◀ TB faster

60 plays #24

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When TB has the ball

Advantage: ATL defense

	TB off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	19.8 #25	25.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	4.66 #25	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.13 #29	−0.02 #16	ATL
Success rate	39% #27	42% #11	ATL

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: TB defense

	ATL off	TB def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	23.0 #17	Even
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.01 #9	Even
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	−0.09 #4	TB
Success rate	44% #13	41% #5	TB

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

TB scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
TB scored	3.2 #25	6.2 #17	9.3 #23	6.7 #8	3.8 #31	10.5 #24
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

ATL scoring against the TB defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
TB allowed	5.7 #26	6.0 #12	11.7 #18	3.3 #5	6.8 #16	10.2 #8

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.