Falcons @ Commanders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 15, 2026)

Sun, Dec 20, 2026, 1:00 PM ESTWeek 15 · at Washington Commanders

Atlanta Falcons

2-4 · Power #18

projected

Sun 1:00 PM ET

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

ATL 46%

54% WSH

Spread

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Total

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model 47.5

Model line

WSH -1

WSH 54% to win

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Winner

Market

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Total

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ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
ATL LWWLL	2-4	33%	2-1	—
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	—

Venue/role: ATL away; WSH home. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
ATL UOOOO	4-2	67%	2-4
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
ATL	6-4 60%	5-5 50%	6-4 60%
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Atlanta Falcons

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	vs TB	W29–28WO
Jan 3	vs NO	W45–24WO
Jan 10	@ CAR	L3–34LU

Washington Commanders

Date	Game	Last meeting
Dec 27	@ MIN	L0–31LU
Jan 3	@ JAX	No meeting since 2023
Jan 10	vs DAL	L20–37LO

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 3 since 2023

ATL 7–5 WSH ATL leads · 12 games since 2003 · ATL has won the last meeting

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 28 2025	Washington Commanders 27 @ Atlanta Falcons 34	ATL -2.5	ATL W
Dec 29 2024	Atlanta Falcons 24 @ Washington Commanders 30	WSH -3.5	WSH W
Oct 15 2023	Washington Commanders 24 @ Atlanta Falcons 16	ATL -2.5	WSH W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

ATL−0.6 →−1.0▼ 0.4#18

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW14

ATL

Longer bar = better

WSH

#15

Offense

◀ ATL better

#19

#15

Defense

◀ ATL better

#26

−1.2 #31

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+1.0 #3

60 plays #24

Pace

WSH faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When ATL has the ball

Advantage: ATL offense

	ATL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	23.7 #16	28.7 #29	ATL
Yards / play	5.74 #10	5.58 #22	ATL
EPA / play	−0.06 #21	+0.07 #24	Even
Success rate	44% #13	48% #29	ATL

When WSH has the ball

Even matchup

	WSH off	ATL def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	25.5 #23	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	5.03 #11	ATL
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	−0.02 #16	Even
Success rate	41% #21	42% #11	ATL

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

ATL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
ATL scored	5.8 #5	6.2 #17	12.0 #16	3.3 #25	8.3 #11	11.7 #17
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

WSH scoring against the ATL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
ATL allowed	6.2 #27	6.7 #17	12.8 #23	5.0 #19	6.5 #13	11.5 #14

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.