Cowboys @ Commanders: Lines, Model & ATS Trends (Week 18, 2026)

Sun, Jan 10, 2027, 12:00 AM ESTWeek 18 · at Washington Commanders · Division game

Dallas Cowboys

2-4 · Power #20

projected

Sun 12:00 AM ET

Washington Commanders

1-4-1 · Power #26

projected

DAL 55%

45% WSH

Spread

DAL -1.5

Total

49.5

model 51.5

Spread edge

WSH by 1

no lean

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Spread

Total

Winner

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Market

Open → current

Spread

Open—

no open

NowDAL -1.5

Opening line not available

Total

Open—

no open

Now49.5

Line context

Road favorites of 0.5–2.5 since 2023: won 59%, covered 55% (114 games)ⓘ

ESPNupdated Sep 21, 12:32 PM ET

SourceESPN odds feed

Opennot available

CurrentDAL -1.5

Total49.5

Last updateSep 21, 12:32 PM ET

Over 6 hours old. Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 1.5-point road favorite at WSH, the favorite won 9, covered 8, and 4 went over the total.

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games

Favorite won

9 of 1090%

Above normal · usually 58%

Favorite covered

8 of 1080%

Normal range · usually 53%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 47%

Wins above normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: favorite by 3.2 against an average line of 2.1; 46.8 points a game (usually 44.5). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Very close	HOU @ IND 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	23–19	W	U48
Very close	LAR @ SEA 2024 · Week 9 · very close · similar spread & total	-2	26–20	W	U48.5
Very close	DAL @ NYG 2025 · Week 18 · very close · similar situation & season form	-3	17–34	L	O50.5
Very close	ATL @ ARI 2025 · Week 16 · very close · similar season form & total	-2.5	26–19	W	U48.5
Very close	SF @ NYG 2025 · Week 9 · very close · similar rest & season form	-2.5	34–24	W	O47.5
Very close	SEA @ ARI 2023 · Week 18 · very close · similar season form & rest	-3	21–20	L	U47.5
Very close	CHI @ ATL 2026 · Week 6 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	31–23	W	O50.5
Very close	LAR @ NO 2024 · Week 13 · very close · similar total & team ratings	-2.5	21–14	W	U48.5
Very close	JAX @ ARI 2025 · Week 12 · very close · similar spread & rest	-1.5	27–24	W	O46.5
Very close	JAX @ HOU 2023 · Week 12 · very close · similar rest & spread	-1	24–21	W	U48

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
DAL WPWLL	2-3-1	40%	1-2	1-3
WSH LWLLW	3-3	50%	1-1	3-2

Venue/role: DAL away, as favorite; WSH home, as underdog. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
DAL OOOUU	4-2	67%	2-4
WSH OOUOU	4-2	67%	1-4-1

In 279 games with totals 46.5–52.5, 53% went over; 3% of those overs had cashed by halftime and 22% by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
DAL	3-7 30%	2-7-1 22%	8-2 80%
WSH	3-6-1 33%	6-4 60%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Next 3 games

With how the last meeting with each opponent went

Dallas Cowboys

No more games this season.

Washington Commanders

No more games this season.

Last meeting: result, against the spread, over / under. Hover a result for its date.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

DAL 39–16 WSH DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Sep 20 2026	Washington Commanders 20 @ Dallas Cowboys 37	DAL -4.5	DAL W
Dec 25 2025	Dallas Cowboys 30 @ Washington Commanders 23	DAL -8.5	WSH W
Oct 19 2025	Washington Commanders 22 @ Dallas Cowboys 44	DAL -2.5	DAL W
Jan 5 2024	Washington Commanders 23 @ Dallas Cowboys 19	WSH -7.5	DAL W
Nov 24 2024	Dallas Cowboys 34 @ Washington Commanders 26	WSH -10.5	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#20

WSH−1.6 →−2.3▼ 0.7#26

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW17

DAL

Longer bar = better

WSH

#11

Offense

◀ DAL better

#19

#30

Defense

WSH better ▶

#26

−0.7 #27

Turnovers

WSH better ▶

+1.0 #3

63 plays #15

Pace

WSH faster ▶

64 plays #11

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When DAL has the ball

Advantage: DAL offense

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	25.2 #12	28.7 #29	DAL
Yards / play	5.49 #13	5.58 #22	DAL
EPA / play	+0.08 #8	+0.07 #24	DAL
Success rate	47% #9	48% #29	DAL

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #21	26.5 #25	Even
Yards / play	5.12 #18	6.04 #31	WSH
EPA / play	−0.01 #16	+0.16 #32	WSH
Success rate	41% #21	49% #32	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.

Points by quarter and half

Per game this season before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

DAL scoring against the WSH defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
DAL scored	5.0 #11	3.8 #27	8.8 #24	7.7 #4	8.7 #7	16.3 #3
WSH allowed	4.3 #14	8.0 #22	12.3 #21	7.2 #26	9.2 #28	16.3 #31

WSH scoring against the DAL defense

	Q1	Q2	1H	Q3	Q4	2H
WSH scored	4.2 #17	5.3 #22	9.5 #22	5.2 #13	7.3 #17	12.5 #10
DAL allowed	5.2 #22	8.3 #24	13.5 #27	7.3 #27	5.7 #7	13.0 #21

Regulation only (overtime is left out). 1H = Q1 + Q2, 2H = Q3 + Q4. #1 scores the most, or allows the fewest. Season to date, not adjusted for opponents.