Commanders @ Cowboys: Result, Lines & ATS Trends (Week 2, 2026)

Sun, Sep 20, 2026, 4:25 PM EDTWeek 2 · at Dallas Cowboys · Division game

Weather at kickoffIndoorsDome or roof: weather does not applyWeather watch ›

Washington Commanders

0-1 · Power #26

final

Final

Dallas Cowboys

0-1 · Power #20

▲ winner

Closing spread

DAL -4.5

✓ DAL W

Total

51.5

▲ Over · 57 pts

Model before kickoff

WSH 23–27 DAL

✓ DAL (65%) won

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -4.5

CloseDAL -4.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

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Market

Open → close

Spread

OpenDAL -4.5

no move

CloseDAL -4.5

No change since the open

Total

Open51.5

no move

Close51.5

No change since the open

Line movement

Opening and closing line · tap a dot

Opened DAL -4.5 · unchangedmodel DAL -3

model DAL -3

Openline modelKickoff

Line context

Home favorites of 3.5–5.5 since 2023: won 67%, covered 50% (147 games)ⓘ

Closing line · DraftKings

SourceDraftKings closing line

OpenDAL -4.5

CloseDAL -4.5

Total51.5

Books differ and lines move; check your sportsbook before betting.

Similar games

The recent games that looked most like this one before kickoff, and how they turned out

In the 10 games most like DAL as a 4.5-point home favorite against WSH, the favorite won 4, covered 0, and 4 went over the total.

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This game: DAL won 37–20; the favorite covered, as in 0 of the 10 similar games. 57 points went over 51.5, as in 4 of 10.

Favorite won

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 67%

Favorite covered

0 of 100%

Below normal · usually 50%

Went over

4 of 1040%

Normal range · usually 49%

Covers below normal. Splits like this often fade, so treat it as context, not a pick. Average result: underdog by 3.2 against an average line of 3.8; 45.2 points a game (usually 44.8). Of the 4 overs, 0 had cashed by the end of Q3. When games like this go over ›

All 10 games

Match	Game	Line	Final	Covered	O/U
Close	MIA vs ARI 2024 · Week 8 · close · similar rest & season form	-4.5	27–28	L	O46.5
Close	LAR vs ARI 2024 · Week 17 · close · similar rest	-6.5	13–9	L	U48.5
Close	DAL vs ARI 2025 · Week 9 · close · similar situation & spread	-3.5	17–27	L	U53.5
Close	JAX vs IND 2024 · Week 5 · close · similar rest & season form	-3.5	37–34	L	O44.5
Close	MIN vs CHI 2025 · Week 11 · close · similar rest	-3	17–19	L	U47.5
Close	LAR vs MIA 2024 · Week 10 · close · similar total & rest	-2.5	15–23	L	U50.5
Close	TB vs ARI 2025 · Week 13 · close · similar rest	-4.5	20–17	L	U45.5
Loose	BAL vs NE 2025 · Week 16 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	24–28	L	O47.5
Loose	ATL vs SEA 2024 · Week 7 · loose · similar situation	-2.5	14–34	L	U51.5
Loose	IND vs JAX 2024 · Week 18 · loose · similar rest & spread	-3.5	26–23	L	O45.5

History, not a prediction. Every NFL game from 2023 on is compared with this one as it looked before kickoff (team strength, the betting line, season form, situation, venue and rest), and only close matches are kept. How matches are found

ATS

Records before kickoff

	Season	Cover	Venue	Role
WSH W	1-0	100%	1-0	1-0
DAL L	0-1	0%	—	0-1

Venue/role: WSH away, as underdog; DAL home, as favorite. Squares: last 5 games ATS (W covered, L didn’t), oldest first.

Totals

Over/under before kickoff

	O-U	Over %	SU
WSH O	1-0	100%	0-1
DAL O	1-0	100%	0-1

Went over in Q4. Of 64 earlier overs in games with totals 48.5–54.5, 22% had cashed by the end of Q3.

When games like this go over ›

Squares: last 5 games (O over, U under), oldest first. Hover for the score and line.

Last 10 games

Before kickoff, this and last season

	Straight up	Spread	Over / under
WSH	2-8 20%	5-5 50%	8-2 80%
DAL	4-6 40%	2-7 22%	8-2 80%

Wins-losses (pushes and ties last). Spread and over / under skip games without a line.

Recent meetings

Last 5 since 2023

WSH 16–39 DAL DAL leads · 55 games since 1999 · DAL has won the last 3 meetings

All-time series from nflverse.

Date	Result	Line	ATS
Dec 25 2025	Dallas Cowboys 30 @ Washington Commanders 23	DAL -8.5	WSH W
Oct 19 2025	Washington Commanders 22 @ Dallas Cowboys 44	DAL -2.5	DAL W
Jan 5 2024	Washington Commanders 23 @ Dallas Cowboys 19	WSH -7.5	DAL W
Nov 24 2024	Dallas Cowboys 34 @ Washington Commanders 26	WSH -10.5	DAL W
Jan 7 2023	Dallas Cowboys 38 @ Washington Commanders 10	DAL -13	DAL W

Matchup stats

Season to date before kickoff · ranks among 32 teams

Power rating this season

pts vs an average team · #rank · tap a dot

WSH−1.6 →−1.4▲ 0.2#26

DAL−0.6 →−1.3▼ 0.7#24

Predashed line = average team · hover or tap a dotW1

WSH

Longer bar = better

DAL

#20

Offense

Even

#17

#16

Defense

◀ WSH better

#26

0.0 #14

Turnovers

◀ WSH better

0.0 #19

67 plays #8

Pace

◀ WSH faster

52 plays #26

Unit by unitEach offense against the other's defense

When WSH has the ball

Advantage: WSH offense

	WSH off	DAL def	Edge
Points / game	22.0 #20	28.0 #21	Even
Yards / play	4.40 #25	5.79 #20	DAL
EPA / play	+0.06 #16	+0.37 #31	WSH
Success rate	43% #18	60% #31	WSH

When DAL has the ball

Even matchup

	DAL off	WSH def	Edge
Points / game	20.0 #23	24.0 #16	WSH
Yards / play	4.69 #24	6.00 #26	Even
EPA / play	+0.22 #6	+0.07 #19	DAL
Success rate	46% #14	35% #3	WSH

Bars show league standing (dashed mark = league middle); Offense and Defense use the average rank across the four stats below. In the tables, a highlighted value and the Edge column mark the side ranked better by at least 15% of the league; defense values are what that team allows. Yards and turnovers from ESPN box scores; EPA from nflverse play-by-play. Descriptive only: the model already uses these.